13 08, 2018

Wesbury’s Outlook- The Kevlar Economy

By |2018-08-13T22:52:25+00:00August 13th, 2018|Bullish, Financial, Governments, Policy, Spending|0 Comments

Since March of 2009, the predictions of economic, and stock market collapse have been non-stop. Doom-and-gloomers have been unrelenting. And it's doubly frustrating since you can't disprove a negative until it doesn't happen. We have written hundreds of pieces since the recovery - and bull market – began, arguing that the pessimism was unjustified. We've [...]

24 07, 2018

Wesbury’s Outlook- Economy Surges in Q2

By |2018-07-24T13:20:33+00:00July 24th, 2018|Bullish, Debt, Financial, Taxes|0 Comments

Economic growth surged in the second quarter this year. The only question is, by how much? Predicting this Friday's GDP report is trickier than usual. First, it's the initial report for the quarter. Second, we have to wait until Thursday for key data on exports and imports, which is particularly important because the trade sector [...]

27 03, 2018

Wesbury’s Outlook – When Volatility is Just Volatility

By |2018-03-27T10:49:11+00:00March 27th, 2018|Bullish, Fed Reserve, Financial, Governments, International, Policy, Taxes|0 Comments

Stock market volatility scares people.  But, volatility itself isn't necessarily bad.  Only if there are fundamental economic problems, something that could cause a recession, would we think volatility itself is a warning sign. So, we watch the Four Pillars.  These Pillars – monetary policy, tax policy, spending & regulatory policy, and trade policy – are [...]

20 03, 2018

Wesbury’s Outlook – The Powell Fed: A New Era

By |2018-03-20T21:43:49+00:00March 20th, 2018|Bullish, Fed Reserve, Financial, Governments, International, Policy, Taxes|0 Comments

In the history of the NCAA Basketball Tournament, a 16th seed has never, ever, beaten a one seed...until this year.  But, on Friday, the University of Maryland, Baltimore County (UMBC) beat the University of Virginia – not just a number one seed, but the top ranked team in the USA. We don't expect the unexpected, [...]

14 03, 2018

Wesbury’s Outlook – Stay Invested: Economy Looks Good

By |2018-03-14T10:31:56+00:00March 14th, 2018|Bullish, Fed Reserve, Financial, Governments, International, Policy, Taxes|0 Comments

The current recovery started in June 2009, 105 months ago, making it the third longest recovery in U.S. history. The longest – a 120-month recovery in the 1990s – saw real GDP expand an annual average of 3.6%.  The current recovery has experienced just a 2.2% average annual growth rate – what we have referred [...]

5 03, 2018

Wesbury’s Outlook – Harleys, Bourbon & Denim

By |2018-03-05T20:55:13+00:00March 5th, 2018|Bullish, Fed Reserve, Financial, Governments, International, Policy, Taxes|0 Comments

The US doesn't face "secular stagnation" caused by outside or uncontrollable forces, like foreigners (and bad trade deals), technology that steals jobs, or Unions that are too weak.  Growth is slow because government has grown too big. In 2000, non-defense government spending was just 14.7% of GDP.  President Bush's "compassionate conservatism" - followed by TARP, [...]

26 02, 2018

Wesbury’s Outlook – Deficits, the Fed, and Rates

By |2018-02-26T14:26:53+00:00February 26th, 2018|Bullish, Fed Reserve, Financial, Governments, Interest Rates|0 Comments

Forgive us our incredulity.  The bond vigilantes were certain that as the Federal Reserve hiked short-term rates, long-term interest rates would barely budge, the yield curve would invert, and the economy would fall into recession. That theory has been blown to smithereens, so now we hear that it's rising long-term rates that will cause a [...]

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