27 03, 2018

Wesbury’s Outlook – When Volatility is Just Volatility

By | 2018-03-27T10:49:11+00:00 March 27th, 2018|Bullish, Fed Reserve, Financial, Governments, International, Policy, Taxes|0 Comments

Stock market volatility scares people.  But, volatility itself isn't necessarily bad.  Only if there are fundamental economic problems, something that could cause a recession, would we think volatility itself is a warning sign. So, we watch the Four Pillars.  These Pillars – monetary policy, tax policy, spending & regulatory policy, and trade policy – are [...]

20 03, 2018

Wesbury’s Outlook – The Powell Fed: A New Era

By | 2018-03-20T21:43:49+00:00 March 20th, 2018|Bullish, Fed Reserve, Financial, Governments, International, Policy, Taxes|0 Comments

In the history of the NCAA Basketball Tournament, a 16th seed has never, ever, beaten a one seed...until this year.  But, on Friday, the University of Maryland, Baltimore County (UMBC) beat the University of Virginia – not just a number one seed, but the top ranked team in the USA. We don't expect the unexpected, [...]

14 03, 2018

Wesbury’s Outlook – Stay Invested: Economy Looks Good

By | 2018-03-14T10:31:56+00:00 March 14th, 2018|Bullish, Fed Reserve, Financial, Governments, International, Policy, Taxes|0 Comments

The current recovery started in June 2009, 105 months ago, making it the third longest recovery in U.S. history. The longest – a 120-month recovery in the 1990s – saw real GDP expand an annual average of 3.6%.  The current recovery has experienced just a 2.2% average annual growth rate – what we have referred [...]

5 03, 2018

Wesbury’s Outlook – Harleys, Bourbon & Denim

By | 2018-03-05T20:55:13+00:00 March 5th, 2018|Bullish, Fed Reserve, Financial, Governments, International, Policy, Taxes|0 Comments

The US doesn't face "secular stagnation" caused by outside or uncontrollable forces, like foreigners (and bad trade deals), technology that steals jobs, or Unions that are too weak.  Growth is slow because government has grown too big. In 2000, non-defense government spending was just 14.7% of GDP.  President Bush's "compassionate conservatism" - followed by TARP, [...]

26 02, 2018

Wesbury’s Outlook – Deficits, the Fed, and Rates

By | 2018-02-26T14:26:53+00:00 February 26th, 2018|Bullish, Fed Reserve, Financial, Governments, Interest Rates|0 Comments

Forgive us our incredulity.  The bond vigilantes were certain that as the Federal Reserve hiked short-term rates, long-term interest rates would barely budge, the yield curve would invert, and the economy would fall into recession. That theory has been blown to smithereens, so now we hear that it's rising long-term rates that will cause a [...]

22 01, 2018

Wesbury’s Outlook – No More Plow Horse

By | 2018-01-22T14:51:07+00:00 January 22nd, 2018|Bullish, Financial, Governments, Interest Rates|0 Comments

We've called the slow, plodding economic recovery from mid-2009 through early 2017 a Plow Horse.  It wasn't a thoroughbred, but it wasn't going to keel over and die either.  Growth trudged along at a sluggish – but steady - 2.1% average annual rate. Thanks to improved policy out of Washington, the Plow Horse has picked [...]

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