24 09, 2019

Fear the Spending, Not the Debt – Wesbury’s Outlook

By |2019-09-24T06:46:37-04:00September 24th, 2019|Debt, Interest Rates, Outlook, Policy, Spending|0 Comments

Never underestimate the ability of politicians to mess up a good thing. They're certainly trying in Washington, D.C. Unfortunately, many people are concerned about the wrong thing. Nice even numbers fascinate people, and through the first eleven months of this fiscal year (October 2018 through August 2019), the U.S. budget deficit was over $1 trillion [...]

26 06, 2019

Wesbury’s Outlook – This Crazy Rate Cut

By |2019-06-26T11:14:20-04:00June 26th, 2019|Fed Reserve, Financial, Governments, Interest Rates, Outlook, Uncategorized|0 Comments

The narrative that the U.S. economy is in trouble – some say teetering on the edge of recession - has become so powerful and persuasive that few investors give it a second thought. So of course, they believe, the Fed should cut interest rates. We haven't seen anything like it since the Fed was hiking [...]

2 04, 2019

Wesbury’s Outlook – Don’t Cut Rates, Cut Spending

By |2019-04-02T14:23:45-04:00April 2nd, 2019|Financial, Interest Rates, Outlook, Spending|0 Comments

We've been "Comrades in Supply-side Arms" with Stephen Moore (now a Federal Reserve nominee) and Larry Kudlow (Administration Economist) for decades, with very few disagreements on economic policy. However, with both having called for a 50 basis point cut in short-term rates, we find ourselves in total disagreement with their conclusion. They both make supply-side [...]

11 02, 2019

Wesbury’s Outlook – Where’s the Recession?

By |2019-02-11T16:23:42-04:00February 11th, 2019|Fed Reserve, Interest Rates, Outlook, Policy, Spending|0 Comments

Whatever happened to the recession calls? Seems like just a few weeks ago that the correction in the stock market as well as the partial government shutdown had convinced many analysts and investors the US was about to enter a recession. Fortunately, the data haven't cooperated. Ten days ago we got the employment report for [...]

30 01, 2019

Wesbury’s Outlook – Don’t Obsess About the Fed

By |2019-01-30T16:47:10-04:00January 30th, 2019|Debt, Fed Reserve, Financial, Governments, Interest Rates, Outlook, Policy, Spending, Uncategorized|0 Comments

When it comes to monetary policy, one thing looks certain for 2019 - journalists, pundits, investors, and analysts will pay it way more attention than it deserves. The spotlight is currently on Wednesday, when the Federal Reserve will issue their first statement of the new year. The consensus expects no changes in rates, and we [...]

23 10, 2018

Wesbury’s Outlook – Robust Growth Continues

By |2018-10-23T04:30:39-04:00October 23rd, 2018|Fed Reserve, Financial, Interest Rates, Media|0 Comments

Economic growth continued at a robust rate in the third quarter, supporting the case for both a continued bull market in stocks and further rate hikes from the Fed. While we might make minor adjustments when we get Thursday's data on durable goods, international trade, and inventories, right now our model forecasts real GDP expanded [...]

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