18 09, 2018

Wesbury’s Outlook – The Growing Deficit

By |2018-09-18T10:47:47+00:00September 18th, 2018|Governments, Interest Rates, Policy, Spending, Taxes|0 Comments

The U.S. federal government reported last week that it ran a deficit of $214 billion in August, the fifth largest deficit for any single month in US history. The Congressional Budget Office thinks these numbers are consistent with a budget deficit of about $800 billion for Fiscal Year 2018, which ends September 30. If so, [...]

11 09, 2018

Wesbury’s Outlook -Wage Growth Steps Up

By |2018-09-11T15:27:01+00:00September 11th, 2018|Financial, Governments, Policy, Taxes|0 Comments

Friday's jobs report finally included what appears to be evidence of the long-awaited acceleration in wage growth. Average hourly earnings grew 0.4% in August, which meant they were up 2.9% from a year ago, the largest 12-month increase since the economic recovery started in mid-2009. By contrast, these wages were up 2.6% in the 12-months [...]

31 07, 2018

Wesbury’s Outlook – The Economic Surge

By |2018-07-31T21:26:27+00:00July 31st, 2018|Fed Reserve, Financial, Governments, Policy, Spending, Taxes|0 Comments

Paul Krugman, Larry Summers and Bob Gordon have some 'splainin to do. Where's that "secular stagnation?" Since 2009, they, along with many others, have said the US economy is stuck at 2% real growth. Their theory got traction after 2009, as the U.S. saw what we called a Plow Horse Economy. But, we never believed [...]

24 07, 2018

Wesbury’s Outlook- Economy Surges in Q2

By |2018-07-24T13:20:33+00:00July 24th, 2018|Bullish, Debt, Financial, Taxes|0 Comments

Economic growth surged in the second quarter this year. The only question is, by how much? Predicting this Friday's GDP report is trickier than usual. First, it's the initial report for the quarter. Second, we have to wait until Thursday for key data on exports and imports, which is particularly important because the trade sector [...]

3 07, 2018

Wesbury’s Outlook – Election Outlook

By |2018-07-03T08:51:08+00:00July 3rd, 2018|Financial, Governments, Policy, Spending, Taxes|0 Comments

At least three reasons suggest the Democrats should be optimistic about taking control of the House this November. First, the party controlling the White House typically loses seats in mid-terms. These include "tidal waves" against the president's party like in 1994 and 2010, when newly-elected presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama watched their parties lose [...]

27 03, 2018

Wesbury’s Outlook – When Volatility is Just Volatility

By |2018-03-27T10:49:11+00:00March 27th, 2018|Bullish, Fed Reserve, Financial, Governments, International, Policy, Taxes|0 Comments

Stock market volatility scares people.  But, volatility itself isn't necessarily bad.  Only if there are fundamental economic problems, something that could cause a recession, would we think volatility itself is a warning sign. So, we watch the Four Pillars.  These Pillars – monetary policy, tax policy, spending & regulatory policy, and trade policy – are [...]

20 03, 2018

Wesbury’s Outlook – The Powell Fed: A New Era

By |2018-03-20T21:43:49+00:00March 20th, 2018|Bullish, Fed Reserve, Financial, Governments, International, Policy, Taxes|0 Comments

In the history of the NCAA Basketball Tournament, a 16th seed has never, ever, beaten a one seed...until this year.  But, on Friday, the University of Maryland, Baltimore County (UMBC) beat the University of Virginia – not just a number one seed, but the top ranked team in the USA. We don't expect the unexpected, [...]

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