Now that we have your attention, let’s take a look at uncertain times and certain times. In our decades of delivering financial guidance, we can’t recall any certain times, which could make you think it’s even more important to know how to react to uncertainty. Here’s some of the uncertainty we’ve witnessed in the last [...]
The consensus among economists puts the odds of a recession starting sometime in the next year at 30%, according to Bloomberg's most recent survey. No wonder the S&P 500 is deep in correction territory and flirting with an official bear market. We think the near-term pessimism is overdone. Yes, a recession is likely on the [...]
No one can say that the Federal Reserve can't do the impossible. At long last observers from across the political spectrum agree on one thing – that Jerome Powell and the Fed are well behind the inflation curve and have a lot of catching up to do. These days, that's virtually impossible. Consumer prices are [...]
ntellectuals and politicians often try to verbally summarize or justify conventional thinking in pithy ways. Milton Friedman (in 1965) and Richard Nixon (in 1971) both said different versions of the phrase "we are all Keynesians now." John Maynard Keynes, one of the most famous economists of all time, supported deficit spending and government manipulation of [...]
They say the truth is the first casualty of war...so, here we are about one week into the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the fog of war is still very thick. Over the past few weeks, it has been conventional wisdom that Russia would take parts of Ukraine (maybe all) and then things would settle [...]
Consumer prices rose 7.0% in 2021, the largest increase for any calendar year since 1981. As a result, politicians across the political spectrum are working overtime to find someone to blame and attack. Some politicians on the left are blaming "greedy" businesses for inflation. But we find this explanation completely ridiculous. Of course, businesses are [...]
Welcome to 2022! We can't imagine a more transformative year for America. After two years of unprecedented government actions, the winds of change are blowing hard. The economy has been buffeted by short-term factors since 2020; this year, long-term fundamentals should re-assert themselves as the most important drivers of economic and financial performance. First, the [...]
Keynesianism can temporarily giveth, but ultimately always taketh away...and then some. When the US fell into the COVID crisis, the federal government went on a massive spending binge. Pre-COVID, in the twelve months through March 2020, federal outlays were $4.6 trillion, or 21.4% of GDP. In the next twelve months outlays soared to $7.6 trillion, [...]
We've been consistently bullish on stocks since 2009. This bullishness has paid off, although not every year; stocks fell in 2015 and 2018. But, since 2009, the market has rebounded from every correction. Why have we stayed bullish? Because our Capitalized Profits Model has consistently shown the S&P 500 as "undervalued" since 2009. It still [...]