22 01, 2020

Moderate Growth in Q4 – Wesbury’s Outlook

By |2020-01-22T15:40:59-05:00January 22nd, 2020|Bullish, Employment, Fed Reserve, Financial, Interest Rates, Outlook, Policy, Uncategorized|0 Comments

Back in mid-November, the highly respected GDP forecasting model from the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank (also known as "GDP Now"), estimated that real GDP would only grow at a 0.3% annual rate in the fourth quarter, which, if accurate, would have been the slowest growth for any quarter since 2015. At the time, we were [...]

9 12, 2019

Good News is Good News – Wesbury’s Outlook

By |2019-12-09T13:30:49-05:00December 9th, 2019|Bullish, Employment, Financial, Outlook, Policy|0 Comments

A year ago, conventional wisdom became convinced that a stock market correction was really the beginning of a "bear market," and a sure sign that recession was on its way. Oops. Conventional wisdom was wrong again. The Pouting Pundits still talk about ISM surveys being weak, and fret that a trade war is brewing. But, [...]

22 01, 2019

Wesbury’s Outlook – Solid Growth to Finish 2018

By |2019-01-22T12:54:09-05:00January 22nd, 2019|Bullish, Employment, Financial, GDP, Outlook|0 Comments

Normally, the end of January sees the government's first estimate of real GDP growth for the fourth quarter. But with no end in sight for the shutdown, which has already seen numerous other data releases postponed – including figures on retail sales, international trade, inventories, construction, and durable goods - it's very unlikely the GDP [...]

11 01, 2019

Wesbury’s Outlook- No Sign of Recession

By |2019-01-11T10:53:43-05:00January 11th, 2019|Bullish, Employment, Financial, Media, Outlook|0 Comments

Talk about destroying a narrative. On Friday, the Labor Department reported 312,000 new jobs in December, with an additional 58,000 from upward revisions to prior months. Recession talk got crushed. The Pouting Pundits of Pessimism claim jobs are a lagging indicator, but the pace of payroll growth starts declining well before a recession starts. In [...]