About R&A

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So far R&A has created 106 blog entries.
16 12, 2019

S&P 3650, Dow 32500 – Wesbury’s Outlook

By |2019-12-16T21:22:37-05:00December 16th, 2019|Bullish|0 Comments

A year ago, we projected the S&P 500 would hit 3100 at the end of 2019. In spite of the swoon in equities in the fourth quarter of last year, we didn't see a recession coming and our model for estimating fair value for the stock market was screaming BUY. At mid-year, seeing the economic [...]

9 12, 2019

Good News is Good News – Wesbury’s Outlook

By |2019-12-09T13:30:49-05:00December 9th, 2019|Bullish, Employment, Financial, Outlook, Policy|0 Comments

A year ago, conventional wisdom became convinced that a stock market correction was really the beginning of a "bear market," and a sure sign that recession was on its way. Oops. Conventional wisdom was wrong again. The Pouting Pundits still talk about ISM surveys being weak, and fret that a trade war is brewing. But, [...]

4 11, 2019

No Recession on the Horizon – Wesbury’s Outlook

By |2019-11-04T16:13:33-05:00November 4th, 2019|Fed Reserve, Financial, GDP, Interest Rates, Outlook, Policy|0 Comments

Since the earliest days of the current economic expansion, there have been naysayers asserting the US was on the brink of another recession. Remember all the fear about another wave of home foreclosures, or a disaster in commercial real estate, or the Fiscal Cliff, or Greece potentially leaving the Eurozone, or German bank defaults, or [...]

24 09, 2019

Fear the Spending, Not the Debt – Wesbury’s Outlook

By |2019-09-24T06:46:37-04:00September 24th, 2019|Debt, Interest Rates, Outlook, Policy, Spending|0 Comments

Never underestimate the ability of politicians to mess up a good thing. They're certainly trying in Washington, D.C. Unfortunately, many people are concerned about the wrong thing. Nice even numbers fascinate people, and through the first eleven months of this fiscal year (October 2018 through August 2019), the U.S. budget deficit was over $1 trillion [...]

17 09, 2019

We’re All Keynesians Now – Wesbury’s Outlook

By |2019-09-17T12:35:38-04:00September 17th, 2019|Financial, Policy, Spending, Taxes, Trade|0 Comments

"We are all Keynesians now," is a phrase that caught on in the late 1960s and early 1970s, variously attributed to Milton Friedman and President Richard Nixon. Uncle Milty was commenting on the general political/economic environment, not saying he was a Keynesian. Richard Nixon, on the other hand, actually said "I am now a Keynesian." [...]

27 08, 2019

Business Uncertainty – Wesbury’s Outlook

By |2019-08-27T08:51:05-04:00August 27th, 2019|Uncategorized|0 Comments

Analysts were very quick to pin the blame for weakness in stocks late last week on the trade war with China. We agree that uncertainty regarding the future of US-China trade relations was a drag on equities, but think it was far from the only reason for weakness. In fact, it wasn't even the most [...]

15 08, 2019

The Inverted Yield Curve and Impending Doom?

By |2019-08-15T13:36:22-04:00August 15th, 2019|Uncategorized|0 Comments

Our media loves a "good" story, even if they have to invent one. Today’s story from Media Groupthink Central (MGC) is the yield curve for US Treasuries has inverted and therefore is signaling an impending recession. Several carefully worded stories to this effect have been printed recently, along with others written more sloppily so as [...]

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