31 08, 2021

5000 – Wesbury’s Outlook

By |2021-08-31T12:07:29-04:00August 31st, 2021|Bullish, Economist, Fed Reserve, Financial, Outlook, Policy, Taxes|0 Comments

We've been consistently bullish on stocks since 2009. This bullishness has paid off, although not every year; stocks fell in 2015 and 2018. But, since 2009, the market has rebounded from every correction. Why have we stayed bullish? Because our Capitalized Profits Model has consistently shown the S&P 500 as "undervalued" since 2009. It still [...]

16 08, 2021

Capitalism vs. Socialism – Wesbury’s Outlook

By |2021-08-16T16:46:35-04:00August 16th, 2021|Debt, Economist, Financial, Media, Outlook, Policy|0 Comments

As we wrote last week, it's not possible to analyze the economy these days without focusing heavily on what government is doing. Between the Federal Reserve, fiscal policy, and COVID-related restrictions, little in our lives avoids governmental influences. The easiest way we can describe the current environment is that in the short-term, forecasting is easy. [...]

9 08, 2021

Projecting Government – Wesbury’s Outlook

By |2021-08-09T23:49:24-04:00August 9th, 2021|Economist, Fed Reserve, Financial, Outlook, Policy|0 Comments

In an ideal world, analysts and investors wouldn't have to spend much time, perhaps none at all, trying to manage around changes in government policy. In that world, government – be it in terms of spending, taxes, or regulation – would be small and consistent enough to not require much thought. Unfortunately, we don't live [...]

29 06, 2021

Who Will Be the Next Fed Chief? – Wesbury’s Outlook

By |2021-06-29T00:55:13-04:00June 29th, 2021|Debt, Economist, Fed Reserve, Financial, Governments, Interest Rates, Outlook, Policy|0 Comments

One of the key decisions President Biden will make later this year is who is going to run the Federal Reserve for the next four years. Current Fed chief Jerome Powell's term as chairman runs out in February 2022. We think the choice will ultimately come down to two people: Roger Ferguson or Jerome Powell. [...]

17 05, 2021

Unsustainable – Wesbury’s Outlook

By |2021-05-17T17:00:25-04:00May 17th, 2021|Economist, Financial, Interest Rates, Media, Outlook, Policy, Spending|0 Comments

The US economy is recovering rapidly from the COVID-19 disaster. The rollout of vaccines, the lifting of restrictions, loose monetary policy, and a massive increase in government spending are all playing their parts. The problem is that the massive government "stimulus" checks have put the economy in a strange position, where retail sales are far [...]

7 04, 2021

Jobs Are Booming – Wesbury’s Outlook

By |2021-04-07T00:39:12-04:00April 7th, 2021|Debt, Economist, Fear, Financial, Governments, International, Outlook, Spending|0 Comments

When the scientists said "15 days to slow the spread," some of us actually believed that by Easter the shutdowns would end. That was last year. Now, a full year, and $5 trillion in government spending later, we may finally be getting our wish. On Good Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the March [...]

16 03, 2021

Inflation and the Fed – Wesbury’s Outlook

By |2021-03-16T15:03:53-04:00March 16th, 2021|Debt, Economist, Fed Reserve, Financial, GDP, Interest Rates, Outlook, Policy|0 Comments

We believe inflation is still, and always will be, a monetary phenomenon. It is defined as "too much money chasing too few goods and services" – but that doesn't mean every period of higher inflation is going to look exactly the same. Today's case for higher inflation is easy to understand. The M2 measure of [...]

7 01, 2021

Happy, Healthy, and Calm

By |2021-01-07T13:33:05-05:00January 7th, 2021|Financial, Media, Outlook|0 Comments

Now that 2020 is receding in the rear view mirror, it’s time to assess where we are and to refresh our goals for where we are headed. 2020 gave us many lessons to learn from and move forward.   First, we all have much to be grateful for and one thing we have observed over [...]

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