23 10, 2018

Wesbury’s Outlook – Robust Growth Continues

By |2018-10-23T04:30:39+00:00October 23rd, 2018|Fed Reserve, Financial, Interest Rates, Media|0 Comments

Economic growth continued at a robust rate in the third quarter, supporting the case for both a continued bull market in stocks and further rate hikes from the Fed. While we might make minor adjustments when we get Thursday's data on durable goods, international trade, and inventories, right now our model forecasts real GDP expanded [...]

31 07, 2018

Wesbury’s Outlook – The Economic Surge

By |2018-07-31T21:26:27+00:00July 31st, 2018|Fed Reserve, Financial, Governments, Policy, Spending, Taxes|0 Comments

Paul Krugman, Larry Summers and Bob Gordon have some 'splainin to do. Where's that "secular stagnation?" Since 2009, they, along with many others, have said the US economy is stuck at 2% real growth. Their theory got traction after 2009, as the U.S. saw what we called a Plow Horse Economy. But, we never believed [...]

17 07, 2018

Wesbury’s Outlook- Yield Curve Inversion

By |2018-07-17T06:10:52+00:00July 17th, 2018|Fed Reserve, Interest Rates, Policy|0 Comments

The yield spread between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury Note has narrowed to 25 basis points, its smallest spread since 2007. This has many investors worried the narrowing spread will lead to an inversion of the yield curve (when short-term rates exceed long-term rates) – which throughout history has often occurred prior to a recession. [...]

10 04, 2018

Wesbury’s Outlook – A Generation of Interest Rate Illiterates

By |2018-04-10T09:34:27+00:00April 10th, 2018|Fed Reserve, Financial, Governments, Interest Rates|0 Comments

An entire generation of investors has been misled about interest rates: where they come from, what they mean, how they're determined. Lots of this confusion has to do with the role of central banks.  Many think central banks, like the Fed, control all interest rates.  This isn't true.  They can only control short-term rates.  It's [...]

27 03, 2018

Wesbury’s Outlook – When Volatility is Just Volatility

By |2018-03-27T10:49:11+00:00March 27th, 2018|Bullish, Fed Reserve, Financial, Governments, International, Policy, Taxes|0 Comments

Stock market volatility scares people.  But, volatility itself isn't necessarily bad.  Only if there are fundamental economic problems, something that could cause a recession, would we think volatility itself is a warning sign. So, we watch the Four Pillars.  These Pillars – monetary policy, tax policy, spending & regulatory policy, and trade policy – are [...]

20 03, 2018

Wesbury’s Outlook – The Powell Fed: A New Era

By |2018-03-20T21:43:49+00:00March 20th, 2018|Bullish, Fed Reserve, Financial, Governments, International, Policy, Taxes|0 Comments

In the history of the NCAA Basketball Tournament, a 16th seed has never, ever, beaten a one seed...until this year.  But, on Friday, the University of Maryland, Baltimore County (UMBC) beat the University of Virginia – not just a number one seed, but the top ranked team in the USA. We don't expect the unexpected, [...]

14 03, 2018

Wesbury’s Outlook – Stay Invested: Economy Looks Good

By |2018-03-14T10:31:56+00:00March 14th, 2018|Bullish, Fed Reserve, Financial, Governments, International, Policy, Taxes|0 Comments

The current recovery started in June 2009, 105 months ago, making it the third longest recovery in U.S. history. The longest – a 120-month recovery in the 1990s – saw real GDP expand an annual average of 3.6%.  The current recovery has experienced just a 2.2% average annual growth rate – what we have referred [...]

5 03, 2018

Wesbury’s Outlook – Harleys, Bourbon & Denim

By |2018-03-05T20:55:13+00:00March 5th, 2018|Bullish, Fed Reserve, Financial, Governments, International, Policy, Taxes|0 Comments

The US doesn't face "secular stagnation" caused by outside or uncontrollable forces, like foreigners (and bad trade deals), technology that steals jobs, or Unions that are too weak.  Growth is slow because government has grown too big. In 2000, non-defense government spending was just 14.7% of GDP.  President Bush's "compassionate conservatism" - followed by TARP, [...]

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