16 05, 2022

Recession Unlikely in 2022 – Wesbury’s Outlook

By |2022-05-16T15:25:25-04:00May 16th, 2022|Economist, Fed Reserve, Interest Rates, International, Media, Outlook, Policy, Spending, Taxes|0 Comments

The consensus among economists puts the odds of a recession starting sometime in the next year at 30%, according to Bloomberg's most recent survey. No wonder the S&P 500 is deep in correction territory and flirting with an official bear market. We think the near-term pessimism is overdone. Yes, a recession is likely on the [...]

26 04, 2022

Focus on the Money, Not Rates – Wesbury’s Outlook

By |2022-04-26T10:49:54-04:00April 26th, 2022|Debt, Economist, Fear, Fed Reserve, Financial, Interest Rates, Outlook, Policy, Spending, Taxes|0 Comments

No one can say that the Federal Reserve can't do the impossible. At long last observers from across the political spectrum agree on one thing – that Jerome Powell and the Fed are well behind the inflation curve and have a lot of catching up to do. These days, that's virtually impossible. Consumer prices are [...]

5 04, 2022

We Are All Keynesians Now – Wesbury’s Outlook

By |2022-04-05T07:34:23-04:00April 5th, 2022|Debt, Economist, Fed Reserve, Financial, Governments, Media, Outlook, Policy|0 Comments

ntellectuals and politicians often try to verbally summarize or justify conventional thinking in pithy ways. Milton Friedman (in 1965) and Richard Nixon (in 1971) both said different versions of the phrase "we are all Keynesians now." John Maynard Keynes, one of the most famous economists of all time, supported deficit spending and government manipulation of [...]

28 02, 2022

Thoughts on Ukraine – Wesbury’s Outlook

By |2022-02-28T17:25:47-05:00February 28th, 2022|Economist, Fear, Fed Reserve, Governments, International, Outlook, Policy, Trade|0 Comments

They say the truth is the first casualty of war...so, here we are about one week into the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the fog of war is still very thick. Over the past few weeks, it has been conventional wisdom that Russia would take parts of Ukraine (maybe all) and then things would settle [...]

19 01, 2022

Who Gets the Blame for Inflation? – Wesbury’s Outlook

By |2022-01-19T13:04:14-05:00January 19th, 2022|Economist, Fear, Fed Reserve, Financial, Governments, Interest Rates, Media, Outlook, Policy|0 Comments

Consumer prices rose 7.0% in 2021, the largest increase for any calendar year since 1981. As a result, politicians across the political spectrum are working overtime to find someone to blame and attack. Some politicians on the left are blaming "greedy" businesses for inflation. But we find this explanation completely ridiculous. Of course, businesses are [...]

25 10, 2021

Slower Growth in Q3 – Wesbury’s Outlook

By |2021-10-25T13:57:41-04:00October 25th, 2021|Economist, Employment, Fed Reserve, Financial, Media, Outlook, Policy, Taxes|0 Comments

Keynesianism can temporarily giveth, but ultimately always taketh away...and then some. When the US fell into the COVID crisis, the federal government went on a massive spending binge. Pre-COVID, in the twelve months through March 2020, federal outlays were $4.6 trillion, or 21.4% of GDP. In the next twelve months outlays soared to $7.6 trillion, [...]

31 08, 2021

5000 – Wesbury’s Outlook

By |2021-08-31T12:07:29-04:00August 31st, 2021|Bullish, Economist, Fed Reserve, Financial, Outlook, Policy, Taxes|0 Comments

We've been consistently bullish on stocks since 2009. This bullishness has paid off, although not every year; stocks fell in 2015 and 2018. But, since 2009, the market has rebounded from every correction. Why have we stayed bullish? Because our Capitalized Profits Model has consistently shown the S&P 500 as "undervalued" since 2009. It still [...]

9 08, 2021

Projecting Government – Wesbury’s Outlook

By |2021-08-09T23:49:24-04:00August 9th, 2021|Economist, Fed Reserve, Financial, Outlook, Policy|0 Comments

In an ideal world, analysts and investors wouldn't have to spend much time, perhaps none at all, trying to manage around changes in government policy. In that world, government – be it in terms of spending, taxes, or regulation – would be small and consistent enough to not require much thought. Unfortunately, we don't live [...]

29 06, 2021

Who Will Be the Next Fed Chief? – Wesbury’s Outlook

By |2021-06-29T00:55:13-04:00June 29th, 2021|Debt, Economist, Fed Reserve, Financial, Governments, Interest Rates, Outlook, Policy|0 Comments

One of the key decisions President Biden will make later this year is who is going to run the Federal Reserve for the next four years. Current Fed chief Jerome Powell's term as chairman runs out in February 2022. We think the choice will ultimately come down to two people: Roger Ferguson or Jerome Powell. [...]

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