16 05, 2022

Recession Unlikely in 2022 – Wesbury’s Outlook

By |2022-05-16T15:25:25-04:00May 16th, 2022|Economist, Fed Reserve, Interest Rates, International, Media, Outlook, Policy, Spending, Taxes|0 Comments

The consensus among economists puts the odds of a recession starting sometime in the next year at 30%, according to Bloomberg's most recent survey. No wonder the S&P 500 is deep in correction territory and flirting with an official bear market. We think the near-term pessimism is overdone. Yes, a recession is likely on the [...]

5 04, 2022

We Are All Keynesians Now – Wesbury’s Outlook

By |2022-04-05T07:34:23-04:00April 5th, 2022|Debt, Economist, Fed Reserve, Financial, Governments, Media, Outlook, Policy|0 Comments

ntellectuals and politicians often try to verbally summarize or justify conventional thinking in pithy ways. Milton Friedman (in 1965) and Richard Nixon (in 1971) both said different versions of the phrase "we are all Keynesians now." John Maynard Keynes, one of the most famous economists of all time, supported deficit spending and government manipulation of [...]

19 01, 2022

Who Gets the Blame for Inflation? – Wesbury’s Outlook

By |2022-01-19T13:04:14-05:00January 19th, 2022|Economist, Fear, Fed Reserve, Financial, Governments, Interest Rates, Media, Outlook, Policy|0 Comments

Consumer prices rose 7.0% in 2021, the largest increase for any calendar year since 1981. As a result, politicians across the political spectrum are working overtime to find someone to blame and attack. Some politicians on the left are blaming "greedy" businesses for inflation. But we find this explanation completely ridiculous. Of course, businesses are [...]

4 01, 2022

Welcome to 2022: The Winds of Change – Wesbury’s Outlook

By |2022-01-04T08:01:02-05:00January 4th, 2022|Economist, Financial, Governments, International, Media, Outlook|0 Comments

Welcome to 2022! We can't imagine a more transformative year for America. After two years of unprecedented government actions, the winds of change are blowing hard. The economy has been buffeted by short-term factors since 2020; this year, long-term fundamentals should re-assert themselves as the most important drivers of economic and financial performance. First, the [...]

25 10, 2021

Slower Growth in Q3 – Wesbury’s Outlook

By |2021-10-25T13:57:41-04:00October 25th, 2021|Economist, Employment, Fed Reserve, Financial, Media, Outlook, Policy, Taxes|0 Comments

Keynesianism can temporarily giveth, but ultimately always taketh away...and then some. When the US fell into the COVID crisis, the federal government went on a massive spending binge. Pre-COVID, in the twelve months through March 2020, federal outlays were $4.6 trillion, or 21.4% of GDP. In the next twelve months outlays soared to $7.6 trillion, [...]

16 08, 2021

Capitalism vs. Socialism – Wesbury’s Outlook

By |2021-08-16T16:46:35-04:00August 16th, 2021|Debt, Economist, Financial, Media, Outlook, Policy|0 Comments

As we wrote last week, it's not possible to analyze the economy these days without focusing heavily on what government is doing. Between the Federal Reserve, fiscal policy, and COVID-related restrictions, little in our lives avoids governmental influences. The easiest way we can describe the current environment is that in the short-term, forecasting is easy. [...]

21 05, 2021

Cryptocurrencies, SPACs, Robinhood/Reddit, the mania beat goes on. – Michael Rogan

By |2021-05-21T15:51:18-04:00May 21st, 2021|Economist, Financial, Media|0 Comments

If the Wizard of Oz were written today about “Investing Crazes du Jour”, Dorothy’s famous repetitive line may well be: “Cryptos, SPACs and Robinhood/Reddit, Oh My!!” As I begin my 36th year dispensing investment advice, I marvel at the consistency of human behavior. Specifically, the consistent avoidance of the knowledge provided by history, and the [...]

17 05, 2021

Unsustainable – Wesbury’s Outlook

By |2021-05-17T17:00:25-04:00May 17th, 2021|Economist, Financial, Interest Rates, Media, Outlook, Policy, Spending|0 Comments

The US economy is recovering rapidly from the COVID-19 disaster. The rollout of vaccines, the lifting of restrictions, loose monetary policy, and a massive increase in government spending are all playing their parts. The problem is that the massive government "stimulus" checks have put the economy in a strange position, where retail sales are far [...]

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