29 04, 2019

Wesbury’s Outlook – Goodbye Recession Fears

By |2019-04-29T18:00:40-05:00April 29th, 2019|Financial, Governments, Media, Outlook, Policy|0 Comments

Less than two months ago, conventional wisdom thought the US economy was in real trouble. The consensus expected real GDP would barely grow, if at all, in the first quarter of 2019. Many were in a tizzy about the "second derivative," of growth, obsessing that near zero growth in Q1 would mean three straight quarters [...]

26 03, 2019

Wesbury’s Outlook – The Wizard of Oz

By |2019-03-26T13:45:28-05:00March 26th, 2019|Financial, Governments, Media, Outlook, Policy|0 Comments

It feels like we are living in the Land of Oz and the Fed is the "all-powerful" wizard in control. From just about every significant group of thought leaders – the press, politicians, economists, analysts, and government officials – the narrative of the past twelve years has been all about government and nothing about the [...]

11 01, 2019

Wesbury’s Outlook- No Sign of Recession

By |2019-01-11T10:53:43-05:00January 11th, 2019|Bullish, Employment, Financial, Media, Outlook|0 Comments

Talk about destroying a narrative. On Friday, the Labor Department reported 312,000 new jobs in December, with an additional 58,000 from upward revisions to prior months. Recession talk got crushed. The Pouting Pundits of Pessimism claim jobs are a lagging indicator, but the pace of payroll growth starts declining well before a recession starts. In [...]

23 10, 2018

Wesbury’s Outlook – Robust Growth Continues

By |2018-10-23T04:30:39-05:00October 23rd, 2018|Fed Reserve, Financial, Interest Rates, Media|0 Comments

Economic growth continued at a robust rate in the third quarter, supporting the case for both a continued bull market in stocks and further rate hikes from the Fed. While we might make minor adjustments when we get Thursday's data on durable goods, international trade, and inventories, right now our model forecasts real GDP expanded [...]

2 10, 2018

Wesbury’s Outlook- No Looming Recession

By |2018-10-02T15:31:58-05:00October 2nd, 2018|Financial, Interest Rates, Media|0 Comments

As far as Harvard economist Martin Feldstein is concerned, we're all doomed. Feldstein says that the low interest rates of the last several years have created a stock market bubble rivaling the housing bubble that precipitated the last crisis. As interest rates keep rising, he says, the stock market bubble will eventually burst, sending the [...]

22 08, 2018

Michael Rogan – Follow Up to the Big Picture

By |2018-08-21T01:57:28-05:00August 22nd, 2018|Media, Policy|0 Comments

In my last blog I mentioned I would follow up with example of not only why the financial press is virtually always wrong, but why they have to be wrong. Again, in this vitriolic time I feel compelled to remind you that this is not a political commentary of any kind. Any comments made here [...]

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