1 06, 2020

More Green Shoots – Wesbury’s Outlook

By |2020-06-01T15:39:10-04:00June 1st, 2020|Economist, Financial, GDP, Governments, Media, Outlook, Uncategorized|0 Comments

A full recovery from the COVID-19/Shutdown Crisis is going to take a long time. We don't anticipate reaching a new peak for real GDP until the end of 2021; we don't anticipate a 4% unemployment rate until 2024. However, there is a growing amount of evidence that the economy may have hit bottom in May. [...]

30 03, 2020

The Coronavirus Threat – Wesbury’s Outlook

By |2020-03-30T12:39:27-04:00March 30th, 2020|Debt, Fear, Financial, GDP, Governments, International, Outlook|0 Comments

Total deaths in the US from COVID19 look like they'll hit at least 3,000 by the end of March. A potentially brutal April lies ahead. In the meantime, the measures taken to limit deaths have temporarily tanked the US economy. Initial claims for jobless benefits soared to 3.283 million per week, easily the highest ever. [...]

4 11, 2019

No Recession on the Horizon – Wesbury’s Outlook

By |2019-11-04T16:13:33-05:00November 4th, 2019|Fed Reserve, Financial, GDP, Interest Rates, Outlook, Policy|0 Comments

Since the earliest days of the current economic expansion, there have been naysayers asserting the US was on the brink of another recession. Remember all the fear about another wave of home foreclosures, or a disaster in commercial real estate, or the Fiscal Cliff, or Greece potentially leaving the Eurozone, or German bank defaults, or [...]

26 04, 2019

Wesbury’s Outlook – Resilient Economy

By |2019-04-26T10:16:20-04:00April 26th, 2019|Financial, GDP, Outlook|0 Comments

It wasn't that long ago that some economists and investors were seriously concerned about US growth going negative for the first quarter. Now, based on our calculations, which we discuss below, it looks like real GDP grew at a respectable 2.6% annual rate in Q1, meaning that US real output was 3.1% larger than Q1-2018. [...]

22 01, 2019

Wesbury’s Outlook – Solid Growth to Finish 2018

By |2019-01-22T12:54:09-05:00January 22nd, 2019|Bullish, Employment, Financial, GDP, Outlook|0 Comments

Normally, the end of January sees the government's first estimate of real GDP growth for the fourth quarter. But with no end in sight for the shutdown, which has already seen numerous other data releases postponed – including figures on retail sales, international trade, inventories, construction, and durable goods - it's very unlikely the GDP [...]

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