18 09, 2018

Wesbury’s Outlook – The Growing Deficit

By |2018-09-18T10:47:47+00:00September 18th, 2018|Governments, Interest Rates, Policy, Spending, Taxes|0 Comments

The U.S. federal government reported last week that it ran a deficit of $214 billion in August, the fifth largest deficit for any single month in US history. The Congressional Budget Office thinks these numbers are consistent with a budget deficit of about $800 billion for Fiscal Year 2018, which ends September 30. If so, [...]

11 09, 2018

Wesbury’s Outlook -Wage Growth Steps Up

By |2018-09-11T15:27:01+00:00September 11th, 2018|Financial, Governments, Policy, Taxes|0 Comments

Friday's jobs report finally included what appears to be evidence of the long-awaited acceleration in wage growth. Average hourly earnings grew 0.4% in August, which meant they were up 2.9% from a year ago, the largest 12-month increase since the economic recovery started in mid-2009. By contrast, these wages were up 2.6% in the 12-months [...]

28 08, 2018

US Stops Subsidizing Global Growth

By |2018-08-28T14:29:40+00:00August 28th, 2018|Financial, Governments, International, Policy|0 Comments

For decades the United States has, directly and indirectly, subsidized global growth. For example, after World War II, the U.S. provided direct economic aid to Western Europe with the Marshall Plan, while also helping to rebuild Japan. And since then, we have provided never-ending direct aid to foreign countries, which has been a constant political [...]

22 08, 2018

Michael Rogan – Follow Up to the Big Picture

By |2018-08-21T01:57:28+00:00August 22nd, 2018|Media, Policy|0 Comments

In my last blog I mentioned I would follow up with example of not only why the financial press is virtually always wrong, but why they have to be wrong. Again, in this vitriolic time I feel compelled to remind you that this is not a political commentary of any kind. Any comments made here [...]

21 08, 2018

Wesbury’s Outlook – Capitalism Works, Don’t Change It

By |2018-08-21T01:48:28+00:00August 21st, 2018|Financial, Governments, Media, Policy|0 Comments

"Wealth creation" versus "the redistribution of wealth" is an age-old political/economic battle. And once again, Senator Elizabeth Warren - among others - has capitalism in the crosshairs. Adam Smith defended capitalism in 1776. Karl Marx attacked it in the 1800s. William Jennings Bryant attacked it; Grover Cleveland defended it. FDR attacked it; Ronald Reagan defended [...]

13 08, 2018

Wesbury’s Outlook- The Kevlar Economy

By |2018-08-13T22:52:25+00:00August 13th, 2018|Bullish, Financial, Governments, Policy, Spending|0 Comments

Since March of 2009, the predictions of economic, and stock market collapse have been non-stop. Doom-and-gloomers have been unrelenting. And it's doubly frustrating since you can't disprove a negative until it doesn't happen. We have written hundreds of pieces since the recovery - and bull market – began, arguing that the pessimism was unjustified. We've [...]

31 07, 2018

Wesbury’s Outlook – The Economic Surge

By |2018-07-31T21:26:27+00:00July 31st, 2018|Fed Reserve, Financial, Governments, Policy, Spending, Taxes|0 Comments

Paul Krugman, Larry Summers and Bob Gordon have some 'splainin to do. Where's that "secular stagnation?" Since 2009, they, along with many others, have said the US economy is stuck at 2% real growth. Their theory got traction after 2009, as the U.S. saw what we called a Plow Horse Economy. But, we never believed [...]

17 07, 2018

Wesbury’s Outlook- Yield Curve Inversion

By |2018-07-17T06:10:52+00:00July 17th, 2018|Fed Reserve, Interest Rates, Policy|0 Comments

The yield spread between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury Note has narrowed to 25 basis points, its smallest spread since 2007. This has many investors worried the narrowing spread will lead to an inversion of the yield curve (when short-term rates exceed long-term rates) – which throughout history has often occurred prior to a recession. [...]

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