31 08, 2021

5000 – Wesbury’s Outlook

By |2021-08-31T12:07:29-04:00August 31st, 2021|Bullish, Economist, Fed Reserve, Financial, Outlook, Policy, Taxes|0 Comments

We've been consistently bullish on stocks since 2009. This bullishness has paid off, although not every year; stocks fell in 2015 and 2018. But, since 2009, the market has rebounded from every correction. Why have we stayed bullish? Because our Capitalized Profits Model has consistently shown the S&P 500 as "undervalued" since 2009. It still [...]

16 08, 2021

Capitalism vs. Socialism – Wesbury’s Outlook

By |2021-08-16T16:46:35-04:00August 16th, 2021|Debt, Economist, Financial, Media, Outlook, Policy|0 Comments

As we wrote last week, it's not possible to analyze the economy these days without focusing heavily on what government is doing. Between the Federal Reserve, fiscal policy, and COVID-related restrictions, little in our lives avoids governmental influences. The easiest way we can describe the current environment is that in the short-term, forecasting is easy. [...]

9 08, 2021

Projecting Government – Wesbury’s Outlook

By |2021-08-09T23:49:24-04:00August 9th, 2021|Economist, Fed Reserve, Financial, Outlook, Policy|0 Comments

In an ideal world, analysts and investors wouldn't have to spend much time, perhaps none at all, trying to manage around changes in government policy. In that world, government – be it in terms of spending, taxes, or regulation – would be small and consistent enough to not require much thought. Unfortunately, we don't live [...]

29 06, 2021

Who Will Be the Next Fed Chief? – Wesbury’s Outlook

By |2021-06-29T00:55:13-04:00June 29th, 2021|Debt, Economist, Fed Reserve, Financial, Governments, Interest Rates, Outlook, Policy|0 Comments

One of the key decisions President Biden will make later this year is who is going to run the Federal Reserve for the next four years. Current Fed chief Jerome Powell's term as chairman runs out in February 2022. We think the choice will ultimately come down to two people: Roger Ferguson or Jerome Powell. [...]

17 05, 2021

Unsustainable – Wesbury’s Outlook

By |2021-05-17T17:00:25-04:00May 17th, 2021|Economist, Financial, Interest Rates, Media, Outlook, Policy, Spending|0 Comments

The US economy is recovering rapidly from the COVID-19 disaster. The rollout of vaccines, the lifting of restrictions, loose monetary policy, and a massive increase in government spending are all playing their parts. The problem is that the massive government "stimulus" checks have put the economy in a strange position, where retail sales are far [...]

16 03, 2021

Inflation and the Fed – Wesbury’s Outlook

By |2021-03-16T15:03:53-04:00March 16th, 2021|Debt, Economist, Fed Reserve, Financial, GDP, Interest Rates, Outlook, Policy|0 Comments

We believe inflation is still, and always will be, a monetary phenomenon. It is defined as "too much money chasing too few goods and services" – but that doesn't mean every period of higher inflation is going to look exactly the same. Today's case for higher inflation is easy to understand. The M2 measure of [...]

8 12, 2020

2021: Robust Growth, Higher Inflation – Wesbury’s Outlook

By |2020-12-08T17:05:37-05:00December 8th, 2020|Debt, Economist, Employment, Fear, Financial, Outlook, Policy|0 Comments

The COVID-19 Recession is the weirdest we've ever had. There is no way anyone could have forecast it. It did not happen because the Fed was too tight. It did not happen because of a trade war. It was self-inflicted, caused by COVID shutdowns. And, in spite of a V-shaped bounce off the bottom – [...]

9 11, 2020

No Wave is Good News For Stocks- Wesbury’s Outlook

By |2020-11-09T19:27:38-05:00November 9th, 2020|Economist, Fear, Financial, Media, Outlook, Policy|0 Comments

While the election is still not certified, and court battles will drag on, it appears that we can draw two firm conclusions from the 2020 election. First, the pollsters were horribly wrong again. Secondly, American voters do not want a radical shift in economic policy. While Vice President Biden declared victory based on statistical evidence [...]

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