It feels like we are living in the Land of Oz and the Fed is the "all-powerful" wizard in control. From just about every significant group of thought leaders – the press, politicians, economists, analysts, and government officials – the narrative of the past twelve years has been all about government and nothing about the [...]
The environment on Capitol Hill has made populism a bipartisan affair, with Republican Senator Marco Rubio now joining the fray with a call to tax corporate stock buybacks. His argument? Corporations are buying back stock instead of making productive investments. He's not alone in arguing that weak investment is the reason the economy isn't growing [...]
It's March 8, 2009. The market's down 56% from its all-time high, unemployment is over 8% and hurtling toward 10%, it's just been reported that real GDP dropped at a 6.2% annual rate in Q4 of 2008, and it feels like the world is coming to an end. You're tired, exhausted from living though this, [...]
Real GDP grew at a 2.6% annual rate in the fourth quarter, and while some analysts are overly occupied with this "slowdown" from the second and third quarter, we think time will prove it statistical noise. Even at 2.6%, the pace is a step up from the Plow Horse 2.2% annual rate from mid-2009 (when [...]
The most important quote from the Financial Panic of 2008 came from President Bush: "I've abandoned free market principles to save the free market system." The quote came in defense of TARP, the $700 billion bailout of the banking system, which many still mistakenly believe prevented another Great Depression. Many also think Quantitative Easing, the [...]
Whatever happened to the recession calls? Seems like just a few weeks ago that the correction in the stock market as well as the partial government shutdown had convinced many analysts and investors the US was about to enter a recession. Fortunately, the data haven't cooperated. Ten days ago we got the employment report for [...]
When it comes to monetary policy, one thing looks certain for 2019 - journalists, pundits, investors, and analysts will pay it way more attention than it deserves. The spotlight is currently on Wednesday, when the Federal Reserve will issue their first statement of the new year. The consensus expects no changes in rates, and we [...]
Normally, the end of January sees the government's first estimate of real GDP growth for the fourth quarter. But with no end in sight for the shutdown, which has already seen numerous other data releases postponed – including figures on retail sales, international trade, inventories, construction, and durable goods - it's very unlikely the GDP [...]
Talk about destroying a narrative. On Friday, the Labor Department reported 312,000 new jobs in December, with an additional 58,000 from upward revisions to prior months. Recession talk got crushed. The Pouting Pundits of Pessimism claim jobs are a lagging indicator, but the pace of payroll growth starts declining well before a recession starts. In [...]