The US economy is recovering rapidly from the COVID-19 disaster. The rollout of vaccines, the lifting of restrictions, loose monetary policy, and a massive increase in government spending are all playing their parts. The problem is that the massive government "stimulus" checks have put the economy in a strange position, where retail sales are far [...]
Housing prices have soared in the past year. The national Case-Shiller index is up 11.2% in the past twelve months, the largest gain since 2005-06. The FHFA index is up 12.0% in the past twelve months, the largest on record (going back to 1991). Given these gains, some are wondering whether housing is back in [...]
When the scientists said "15 days to slow the spread," some of us actually believed that by Easter the shutdowns would end. That was last year. Now, a full year, and $5 trillion in government spending later, we may finally be getting our wish. On Good Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the March [...]
We believe inflation is still, and always will be, a monetary phenomenon. It is defined as "too much money chasing too few goods and services" – but that doesn't mean every period of higher inflation is going to look exactly the same. Today's case for higher inflation is easy to understand. The M2 measure of [...]
Now that 2020 is receding in the rear view mirror, it’s time to assess where we are and to refresh our goals for where we are headed. 2020 gave us many lessons to learn from and move forward. First, we all have much to be grateful for and one thing we have observed over [...]
The COVID-19 Recession is the weirdest we've ever had. There is no way anyone could have forecast it. It did not happen because the Fed was too tight. It did not happen because of a trade war. It was self-inflicted, caused by COVID shutdowns. And, in spite of a V-shaped bounce off the bottom – [...]
In December 2019, we made a year-end 2020 forecast of 3,650 for the S&P 500. With the index closing Friday at 3,638, that looks like a very good call. But we'd be fibbing if we didn't admit to getting whipsawed by COVID-19. In the spring the S&P 500 fell as low as 2,237, pricing in [...]
Give Thanks! The US economy continues to heal. Payrolls keep growing, unemployment claims - though still elevated - are shrinking, key measures of the manufacturing and service sectors remain well into positive territory, and, as this week should show, both retail sales and industrial production remain on an upward trajectory. While some investors are concerned [...]
While the election is still not certified, and court battles will drag on, it appears that we can draw two firm conclusions from the 2020 election. First, the pollsters were horribly wrong again. Secondly, American voters do not want a radical shift in economic policy. While Vice President Biden declared victory based on statistical evidence [...]