4 02, 2025

The “Gift of Stay” – Michael Rogan

By |2025-02-04T12:26:52-05:00February 4th, 2025|Economist, Financial, Outlook, Planning|Comments Off on The “Gift of Stay” – Michael Rogan

Rogan & Associates is truly blessed with great clients who compliment us by referring their friends and family. I’m often asked to explain what it is we do that sets us apart from other financial services firms. It occurred to me this week that one of the most important things we do for people is [...]

18 03, 2020

The Coronavirus Contraction – Wesbury 101

By |2020-03-18T13:40:18-04:00March 18th, 2020|Fear, Financial, Media, Outlook|Comments Off on The Coronavirus Contraction – Wesbury 101

We are in the midst of a Coronavirus Contraction. The news keeps highlighting worst case scenarios. The markets are volatile. Data in the months ahead may get ugly. But this too shall pass. How do we navigate this storm until the clouds part? https://youtu.be/7pazQdPe2Ws  

1 05, 2018

Wesbury’s Outlook – 3%, Why It Doesn’t Matter

By |2018-05-01T09:40:28-04:00May 1st, 2018|Bullish, Financial, Interest Rates|Comments Off on Wesbury’s Outlook – 3%, Why It Doesn’t Matter

Just a few weeks ago, the Pouting Pundits of Pessimism were freaked out over the potential for the yield curve to invert. They've now completely reversed course and are freaked out over a 3% 10-year Treasury note yield. All this gnashing of teeth is driven by a belief that low interest rates and QE have [...]

25 04, 2018

Wesbury’s Outlook- Modest Growth in Q1

By |2018-04-25T07:36:31-04:00April 25th, 2018|Financial, Interest Rates, Policy, Taxes|Comments Off on Wesbury’s Outlook- Modest Growth in Q1

From mid-2009 through early 2017, the US economy grew at a real average annual rate of 2.2%. Not a recession, but not robust growth either, which is why we called it a Plow Horse Economy. For the first quarter of 2018, we expect growth of 1.9% at an annualized rate, right in-line with a Plow [...]

4 04, 2018

Wesbury’s Outlook – Ignoring The Invisible Hand

By |2018-04-04T10:22:22-04:00April 4th, 2018|Governments, Spending, Taxes|Comments Off on Wesbury’s Outlook – Ignoring The Invisible Hand

One of the most important questions we have about our country's future is whether prosperity itself will make the American people lose sight of where that prosperity comes from; whether we'll forget to cultivate the attitudes about freedom, property rights, and hard work that have made not only us great but also all the other [...]

27 03, 2018

Wesbury’s Outlook – When Volatility is Just Volatility

By |2018-03-27T10:49:11-04:00March 27th, 2018|Bullish, Fed Reserve, Financial, Governments, International, Policy, Taxes|Comments Off on Wesbury’s Outlook – When Volatility is Just Volatility

Stock market volatility scares people.  But, volatility itself isn't necessarily bad.  Only if there are fundamental economic problems, something that could cause a recession, would we think volatility itself is a warning sign. So, we watch the Four Pillars.  These Pillars – monetary policy, tax policy, spending & regulatory policy, and trade policy – are [...]

20 03, 2018

Wesbury’s Outlook – The Powell Fed: A New Era

By |2018-03-20T21:43:49-04:00March 20th, 2018|Bullish, Fed Reserve, Financial, Governments, International, Policy, Taxes|Comments Off on Wesbury’s Outlook – The Powell Fed: A New Era

In the history of the NCAA Basketball Tournament, a 16th seed has never, ever, beaten a one seed...until this year.  But, on Friday, the University of Maryland, Baltimore County (UMBC) beat the University of Virginia – not just a number one seed, but the top ranked team in the USA. We don't expect the unexpected, [...]

14 03, 2018

Wesbury’s Outlook – Stay Invested: Economy Looks Good

By |2018-03-14T10:31:56-04:00March 14th, 2018|Bullish, Fed Reserve, Financial, Governments, International, Policy, Taxes|Comments Off on Wesbury’s Outlook – Stay Invested: Economy Looks Good

The current recovery started in June 2009, 105 months ago, making it the third longest recovery in U.S. history. The longest – a 120-month recovery in the 1990s – saw real GDP expand an annual average of 3.6%.  The current recovery has experienced just a 2.2% average annual growth rate – what we have referred [...]

5 03, 2018

Wesbury’s Outlook – Harleys, Bourbon & Denim

By |2018-03-05T20:55:13-05:00March 5th, 2018|Bullish, Fed Reserve, Financial, Governments, International, Policy, Taxes|Comments Off on Wesbury’s Outlook – Harleys, Bourbon & Denim

The US doesn't face "secular stagnation" caused by outside or uncontrollable forces, like foreigners (and bad trade deals), technology that steals jobs, or Unions that are too weak.  Growth is slow because government has grown too big. In 2000, non-defense government spending was just 14.7% of GDP.  President Bush's "compassionate conservatism" - followed by TARP, [...]

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