Total deaths in the US from COVID19 look like they'll hit at least 3,000 by the end of March. A potentially brutal April lies ahead. In the meantime, the measures taken to limit deaths have temporarily tanked the US economy. Initial claims for jobless benefits soared to 3.283 million per week, easily the highest ever. [...]
In Ronald Reagan's famous A Time For Choosing speech in 1964, he said "...the more the plans fail, the more the planners plan." We were reminded of this recently after pundits freaked out when the New York Federal Reserve injected reserves into the banking system to keep some short-term rates from rising. A few things [...]
Never underestimate the ability of politicians to mess up a good thing. They're certainly trying in Washington, D.C. Unfortunately, many people are concerned about the wrong thing. Nice even numbers fascinate people, and through the first eleven months of this fiscal year (October 2018 through August 2019), the U.S. budget deficit was over $1 trillion [...]
What a difference a month makes. Last month many economists had pushed down their estimates for first quarter economic growth to near zero. The Atlanta Fed's "GDP Now" model was projecting real GDP growth at a 0.2% annual rate in Q1, which would have been the slowest growth since the weather-related negative reading in the [...]
The environment on Capitol Hill has made populism a bipartisan affair, with Republican Senator Marco Rubio now joining the fray with a call to tax corporate stock buybacks. His argument? Corporations are buying back stock instead of making productive investments. He's not alone in arguing that weak investment is the reason the economy isn't growing [...]
When it comes to monetary policy, one thing looks certain for 2019 - journalists, pundits, investors, and analysts will pay it way more attention than it deserves. The spotlight is currently on Wednesday, when the Federal Reserve will issue their first statement of the new year. The consensus expects no changes in rates, and we [...]
The Federal Reserve meets on Wednesday and there's one thing we know for sure: it's going to raise rates by another 25 basis points, lifting the federal funds rate to a range from 2.00 to 2.25%. Why are we so confident? Two reasons. First, the market in federal funds futures is putting the odds of [...]
Economic growth surged in the second quarter this year. The only question is, by how much? Predicting this Friday's GDP report is trickier than usual. First, it's the initial report for the quarter. Second, we have to wait until Thursday for key data on exports and imports, which is particularly important because the trade sector [...]
For decades, investors have feared the national debt growing to unsustainable levels and destroying the US economy. Back in 1981, the public debt of the federal government was $1 trillion; today it's more than $21 trillion. At some point, their theory goes, additional debt is going to be the fiscal straw that breaks the camel's [...]