Bears, Recessions, and Monkey Pox. Oh My!

By |2022-06-06T16:55:07-04:00June 6th, 2022|Uncategorized|

Given recent events, we sense a need to send you this booster shot of “Vitamin C(alm)”. After numerous conversations with clients during annual review meetings, we thought this would be a good time to discuss the ultimate impact of the ‘Crises du jour’ on your financial plan. Our intent is not to downplay the significance [...]

Recession Unlikely in 2022 – Wesbury’s Outlook

By |2022-05-16T15:25:25-04:00May 16th, 2022|Economist, Fed Reserve, Interest Rates, International, Media, Outlook, Policy, Spending, Taxes|

The consensus among economists puts the odds of a recession starting sometime in the next year at 30%, according to Bloomberg's most recent survey. No wonder the S&P 500 is deep in correction territory and flirting with an official bear market. We think the near-term pessimism is overdone. Yes, a recession is likely on the [...]

Focus on the Money, Not Rates – Wesbury’s Outlook

By |2022-04-26T10:49:54-04:00April 26th, 2022|Debt, Economist, Fear, Fed Reserve, Financial, Interest Rates, Outlook, Policy, Spending, Taxes|

No one can say that the Federal Reserve can't do the impossible. At long last observers from across the political spectrum agree on one thing – that Jerome Powell and the Fed are well behind the inflation curve and have a lot of catching up to do. These days, that's virtually impossible. Consumer prices are [...]

We Are All Keynesians Now – Wesbury’s Outlook

By |2022-04-05T07:34:23-04:00April 5th, 2022|Debt, Economist, Fed Reserve, Financial, Governments, Media, Outlook, Policy|

ntellectuals and politicians often try to verbally summarize or justify conventional thinking in pithy ways. Milton Friedman (in 1965) and Richard Nixon (in 1971) both said different versions of the phrase "we are all Keynesians now." John Maynard Keynes, one of the most famous economists of all time, supported deficit spending and government manipulation of [...]

Who Gets the Blame for Inflation? – Wesbury’s Outlook

By |2022-01-19T13:04:14-05:00January 19th, 2022|Economist, Fear, Fed Reserve, Financial, Governments, Interest Rates, Media, Outlook, Policy|

Consumer prices rose 7.0% in 2021, the largest increase for any calendar year since 1981. As a result, politicians across the political spectrum are working overtime to find someone to blame and attack. Some politicians on the left are blaming "greedy" businesses for inflation. But we find this explanation completely ridiculous. Of course, businesses are [...]

Welcome to 2022: The Winds of Change – Wesbury’s Outlook

By |2022-01-04T08:01:02-05:00January 4th, 2022|Economist, Financial, Governments, International, Media, Outlook|

Welcome to 2022! We can't imagine a more transformative year for America. After two years of unprecedented government actions, the winds of change are blowing hard. The economy has been buffeted by short-term factors since 2020; this year, long-term fundamentals should re-assert themselves as the most important drivers of economic and financial performance. First, the [...]

Slower Growth in Q3 – Wesbury’s Outlook

By |2021-10-25T13:57:41-04:00October 25th, 2021|Economist, Employment, Fed Reserve, Financial, Media, Outlook, Policy, Taxes|

Keynesianism can temporarily giveth, but ultimately always taketh away...and then some. When the US fell into the COVID crisis, the federal government went on a massive spending binge. Pre-COVID, in the twelve months through March 2020, federal outlays were $4.6 trillion, or 21.4% of GDP. In the next twelve months outlays soared to $7.6 trillion, [...]

Focus on Data, Not Spin – Wesbury’s Outlook

By |2021-10-11T16:17:32-04:00October 11th, 2021|Uncategorized|

In 2009, after overly strict mark-to-market accounting rules were altered, we said the Financial Crisis was over. It was hard to get our voice heard, though, because both sides of the political aisle were busy saying the economy stunk. Political liberals tried to use the crisis to grow the government and increase bank regulation. Political [...]

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