Not since the 1960s and 70s has the United States experienced social upheaval like it is experiencing today. We have protests (both peaceful and otherwise), and a massively divided political landscape. On top of that, we have a virus that is spreading across the country, creating fear and an acceptance of economic shutdowns. Originally, the [...]
A resurgence of new Coronavirus cases around the country has created uncertainty for investors. Stock markets fell last week, not because of the virus, but because investors fear another round of economy-killing, government-mandated lockdowns. We don't expect that to happen, but when the government is involved, risks are definitely higher. After the peak in early [...]
The one key takeaway from last week's Fed meeting is that monetary policymakers are set to keep short-term interest rates near zero for as far as the eye can see. Not forever, but at least until 2023. Keep this in mind in the week ahead, as we get more reports confirming the economic recovery started [...]
A full recovery from the COVID-19/Shutdown Crisis is going to take a long time. We don't anticipate reaching a new peak for real GDP until the end of 2021; we don't anticipate a 4% unemployment rate until 2024. However, there is a growing amount of evidence that the economy may have hit bottom in May. [...]
When the employment report for April is released this Friday, the economic damage from the deepest of the Coronavirus shutdowns will become clear. We estimate that nonfarm payrolls will be down roughly 22 million versus March, and the unemployment rate will skyrocket to around 17.0%, the highest reading since at least 1948. To put that [...]
We are in the midst of a Coronavirus Contraction. The news keeps highlighting worst case scenarios. The markets are volatile. Data in the months ahead may get ugly. But this too shall pass. How do we navigate this storm until the clouds part? https://youtu.be/7pazQdPe2Ws
Brian S. Wesbury, Chief Economist Robert Stein, Deputy Chief Economist Date: 3/16/2020 Back in July 2008, then-Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson said he wanted a "bazooka" to deal with financial threats to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Paulson wanted Congress to give him an unlimited credit line for these enterprises. This time around, it's the Federal [...]
Less than a month ago markets were at a record high, as healthy data on the US economy signaled continued growth on the horizon. Then, as Coronavirus made its way to continental Europe and the United States, markets went into a tailspin, suffering one of the fastest declines on record. The last several weeks have [...]
We thought we would interrupt your daily routine with an update on the current panic/crisis du jour. if you have taken our advice and are not watching the news, then you can stop reading here and continue to go about your lives. If, however, you’re like most of us and find it nearly impossible [...]