Wesbury’s Outlook – The Big Picture and the Fed
If you take a long hike up a mountain, there's plenty to appreciate along the way. But, sometimes, you just have to stop and enjoy the view. With that in mind, let's forget about the April employment report – which saw a combination of very fast payroll growth and moderate wage growth – and think [...]
Wesbury’s Outlook – Goodbye Recession Fears
Less than two months ago, conventional wisdom thought the US economy was in real trouble. The consensus expected real GDP would barely grow, if at all, in the first quarter of 2019. Many were in a tizzy about the "second derivative," of growth, obsessing that near zero growth in Q1 would mean three straight quarters [...]
Wesbury’s Outlook – Resilient Economy
It wasn't that long ago that some economists and investors were seriously concerned about US growth going negative for the first quarter. Now, based on our calculations, which we discuss below, it looks like real GDP grew at a respectable 2.6% annual rate in Q1, meaning that US real output was 3.1% larger than Q1-2018. [...]
Wesbury’s Outlook – New Highs, Still a Buy
The Dow Jones Industrials Average and S&P 500 are breathing down the neck of record highs set last Fall. Some take that as a sign to sell, time to shift out of equities and realize gains. We think that would be a mistake. At the end of last year, we forecast the Dow would finish [...]
What’s Really Important? – Michael Rogan
Often, new clients come to us mired in the minutiae of one or two aspects of their financial life but without having a good grasp of the big picture. This is partially a result of the media, be it advertising, pundits or articles, focusing on minutiae and not necessarily accurately. So we labor to refocus [...]
Wesbury’s Outlook – Economy on Very Solid Ground
What a difference a month makes. Last month many economists had pushed down their estimates for first quarter economic growth to near zero. The Atlanta Fed's "GDP Now" model was projecting real GDP growth at a 0.2% annual rate in Q1, which would have been the slowest growth since the weather-related negative reading in the [...]
Wesbury’s Outlook – Don’t Cut Rates, Cut Spending
We've been "Comrades in Supply-side Arms" with Stephen Moore (now a Federal Reserve nominee) and Larry Kudlow (Administration Economist) for decades, with very few disagreements on economic policy. However, with both having called for a 50 basis point cut in short-term rates, we find ourselves in total disagreement with their conclusion. They both make supply-side [...]
Wesbury’s Outlook – The Wizard of Oz
It feels like we are living in the Land of Oz and the Fed is the "all-powerful" wizard in control. From just about every significant group of thought leaders – the press, politicians, economists, analysts, and government officials – the narrative of the past twelve years has been all about government and nothing about the [...]