The Doves won the day at the Federal Reserve today, which noted continued solid economic performance but removed longstanding language that further gradual increases will be warranted, and instead highlighted global developments – both economic and financial - and a moderation in inflation as reasons the Fed will be "patient" in determining the pace of [...]
When it comes to monetary policy, one thing looks certain for 2019 - journalists, pundits, investors, and analysts will pay it way more attention than it deserves. The spotlight is currently on Wednesday, when the Federal Reserve will issue their first statement of the new year. The consensus expects no changes in rates, and we [...]
As we head into the last weekend before Christmas, the news outlets are busy trying to distract us from what should be a joyous time with fabricated stories of impending doom and gloom. Once again we would like to be your antidote to misinformation. For the last 40 years, the US stock market has averaged [...]
New Narrative Alert: Fed Chief Jerome Powell is to blame for the volatility in stocks. Back on October 3rd, with stock markets near their record highs, Powell said "we're a long way from neutral." That was not long after the Fed had moved the federal funds rate to a range of 2.00% to 2.25%, so [...]
It's that time of the year again. Holiday sales data show surging online sales while foot traffic at brick and mortar stores remains tepid. If you have a sense of déjà vu, it's because you heard the same stories last year. Black Friday had a 23.6% increase in online sales this year, according to Adobe [...]
Fed Chair Jerome Powell and others have started a new narrative about economic "headwinds." They think past rate hikes, slower foreign growth, and "fading fiscal stimulus" should slow the Fed's rate hikes. But is fiscal stimulus really fading? Powell and others think the growth benefits of both the 2018 tax cuts and increased federal spending [...]
Growth is determined by a perpetual tug-of-war between entrepreneurship and government redistribution. When President Obama was in office, we believed incredible technological innovation would allow for economic growth in spite of Obamacare, greater redistribution, higher taxes and increased regulatory burdens. We thought it would be a Plow Horse Economy, and that things would get better [...]
October Market Scaries As most of you know, we’ve advocated for many years that you not pay attention to the daily drivel of the financial media but rather focus on more important things like your family and friends. For the hundreds of you who have experienced the benefit of following that advice, read no further [...]
Conventional wisdom says the stock market rally is over. We wholeheartedly disagree. These doomsayers are focused on three specific things they claim spell the end: 1) the Fed lifting rates, 2) trade wars, and 3) the midterm elections. So let's break down the issues, one by one, and show why fears are overblown. Tune out [...]