Wesbury’s Outlook- Modest Growth in Q1

By |2018-04-25T07:36:31-04:00April 25th, 2018|Financial, Interest Rates, Policy, Taxes|

From mid-2009 through early 2017, the US economy grew at a real average annual rate of 2.2%. Not a recession, but not robust growth either, which is why we called it a Plow Horse Economy. For the first quarter of 2018, we expect growth of 1.9% at an annualized rate, right in-line with a Plow [...]

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Wesbury’s Outlook – A Generation of Interest Rate Illiterates

By |2018-04-10T09:34:27-04:00April 10th, 2018|Fed Reserve, Financial, Governments, Interest Rates|

An entire generation of investors has been misled about interest rates: where they come from, what they mean, how they're determined. Lots of this confusion has to do with the role of central banks.  Many think central banks, like the Fed, control all interest rates.  This isn't true.  They can only control short-term rates.  It's [...]

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Wesbury’s Outlook – Ignoring The Invisible Hand

By |2018-04-04T10:22:22-04:00April 4th, 2018|Governments, Spending, Taxes|

One of the most important questions we have about our country's future is whether prosperity itself will make the American people lose sight of where that prosperity comes from; whether we'll forget to cultivate the attitudes about freedom, property rights, and hard work that have made not only us great but also all the other [...]

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Wesbury’s Outlook – When Volatility is Just Volatility

By |2018-03-27T10:49:11-04:00March 27th, 2018|Bullish, Fed Reserve, Financial, Governments, International, Policy, Taxes|

Stock market volatility scares people.  But, volatility itself isn't necessarily bad.  Only if there are fundamental economic problems, something that could cause a recession, would we think volatility itself is a warning sign. So, we watch the Four Pillars.  These Pillars – monetary policy, tax policy, spending & regulatory policy, and trade policy – are [...]

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Wesbury’s Outlook – The Powell Fed: A New Era

By |2018-03-20T21:43:49-04:00March 20th, 2018|Bullish, Fed Reserve, Financial, Governments, International, Policy, Taxes|

In the history of the NCAA Basketball Tournament, a 16th seed has never, ever, beaten a one seed...until this year.  But, on Friday, the University of Maryland, Baltimore County (UMBC) beat the University of Virginia – not just a number one seed, but the top ranked team in the USA. We don't expect the unexpected, [...]

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Wesbury’s Outlook – Stay Invested: Economy Looks Good

By |2018-03-14T10:31:56-04:00March 14th, 2018|Bullish, Fed Reserve, Financial, Governments, International, Policy, Taxes|

The current recovery started in June 2009, 105 months ago, making it the third longest recovery in U.S. history. The longest – a 120-month recovery in the 1990s – saw real GDP expand an annual average of 3.6%.  The current recovery has experienced just a 2.2% average annual growth rate – what we have referred [...]

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Wesbury’s Outlook – Harleys, Bourbon & Denim

By |2018-03-05T20:55:13-05:00March 5th, 2018|Bullish, Fed Reserve, Financial, Governments, International, Policy, Taxes|

The US doesn't face "secular stagnation" caused by outside or uncontrollable forces, like foreigners (and bad trade deals), technology that steals jobs, or Unions that are too weak.  Growth is slow because government has grown too big. In 2000, non-defense government spending was just 14.7% of GDP.  President Bush's "compassionate conservatism" - followed by TARP, [...]

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Wesbury’s Outlook – Deficits, the Fed, and Rates

By |2018-02-26T14:26:53-05:00February 26th, 2018|Bullish, Fed Reserve, Financial, Governments, Interest Rates|

Forgive us our incredulity.  The bond vigilantes were certain that as the Federal Reserve hiked short-term rates, long-term interest rates would barely budge, the yield curve would invert, and the economy would fall into recession. That theory has been blown to smithereens, so now we hear that it's rising long-term rates that will cause a [...]

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Wesbury’s Outlook – QE and Its Apologists

By |2018-02-21T00:38:52-05:00February 21st, 2018|Bullish, Financial, Governments, Interest Rates|

On March 9, 2018, the bull market in U.S. stocks will celebrate its ninth anniversary.  And, what we find most amazing is how few people truly understand it.  To this day, in spite of massive increases in corporate earnings, many still think the market is one big "sugar high" – a bubble built on a [...]

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