The US labor market is going from strength to strength. Like with corporate earnings, June jobs data beat consensus estimates - up 213,000 - pushing the average monthly gain for the past year to 198,000 per month. Meanwhile the unemployment rate jumped from 3.8% to 4.0%. Why? Because the civilian labor force grew by 601,000. [...]
At least three reasons suggest the Democrats should be optimistic about taking control of the House this November. First, the party controlling the White House typically loses seats in mid-terms. These include "tidal waves" against the president's party like in 1994 and 2010, when newly-elected presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama watched their parties lose [...]
What do the internet and China have in common? For better or for worse, policymakers are no longer treating them with kid gloves. This past week, the Supreme Court reversed a decision made before the dawn of the internet that prevented states from taxing sales to their residents unless the business had a "physical presence" [...]
We've always been skeptical that bond yields carry deep meaning about the future. Low Treasury bond yields in recent years were said to be a signal of slower growth, or possibly a recession, ahead. And the bond world said stocks were over-valued. Clearly, the forecasted recession never came. Not only is the economy accelerating, but [...]
In over thirty years of watching the economy we've seen recessions, recoveries (both slow and fast), panics, lulls, and boomlets. But we've rarely seen a job market this strong. Everything is hyper-politicized these days, and we get accused of playing politics all the time. But what we care about deeply, what drives our focus, is [...]
For decades, investors have feared the national debt growing to unsustainable levels and destroying the US economy. Back in 1981, the public debt of the federal government was $1 trillion; today it's more than $21 trillion. At some point, their theory goes, additional debt is going to be the fiscal straw that breaks the camel's [...]
The US labor market has rarely been stronger. Recent figures from the Labor Department show US businesses had a total of 6.550 million job openings in March versus 6.585 million people who were unemployed. That's a gap of only 35,000 workers. By contrast, this gap never fell below 2 million in the previous economic expansion [...]
The bull market in U.S. stocks, which started on March 9, 2009, gets little respect. Those who have been bullish, and right, are mocked as "perma-bulls," while "perma-bears," who have been repeatedly wrong, are quoted endlessly. We don't have enough fingers and toes to count the number of times a recession has [...]
Just a few weeks ago, the Pouting Pundits of Pessimism were freaked out over the potential for the yield curve to invert. They've now completely reversed course and are freaked out over a 3% 10-year Treasury note yield. All this gnashing of teeth is driven by a belief that low interest rates and QE have [...]