As far as Harvard economist Martin Feldstein is concerned, we're all doomed. Feldstein says that the low interest rates of the last several years have created a stock market bubble rivaling the housing bubble that precipitated the last crisis. As interest rates keep rising, he says, the stock market bubble will eventually burst, sending the [...]
The Federal Reserve meets on Wednesday and there's one thing we know for sure: it's going to raise rates by another 25 basis points, lifting the federal funds rate to a range from 2.00 to 2.25%. Why are we so confident? Two reasons. First, the market in federal funds futures is putting the odds of [...]
The U.S. federal government reported last week that it ran a deficit of $214 billion in August, the fifth largest deficit for any single month in US history. The Congressional Budget Office thinks these numbers are consistent with a budget deficit of about $800 billion for Fiscal Year 2018, which ends September 30. If so, [...]
Many of you possess vast knowledge, from personal experience, on the subject of having teenagers in your life. I, on the other hand, am just beginning to learn. I’ve been recently musing on their ability to believe in fictions created in their young minds. This seems to especially occur when they are asked, by an [...]
Friday's jobs report finally included what appears to be evidence of the long-awaited acceleration in wage growth. Average hourly earnings grew 0.4% in August, which meant they were up 2.9% from a year ago, the largest 12-month increase since the economic recovery started in mid-2009. By contrast, these wages were up 2.6% in the 12-months [...]
It is ingrained in our societal message regarding investments that stocks are risky and bonds are safe. We all “know” this because we are told it, explicitly and subtlety, every day. Because of this, individuals in our country, and indeed around the world, have tens of trillions of dollars invested to earn 3% or [...]
In spite of woeful prognostications to the contrary, the US economy seems to be wearing Kevlar. Rate hikes, tariffs, Turkey, you name the fear, the economy remains unscathed. Case in point, through all the supposed turmoil, the U.S. grew at a 4.2% annual rate in the second quarter and looks set for a similar pace [...]
For decades the United States has, directly and indirectly, subsidized global growth. For example, after World War II, the U.S. provided direct economic aid to Western Europe with the Marshall Plan, while also helping to rebuild Japan. And since then, we have provided never-ending direct aid to foreign countries, which has been a constant political [...]
In my last blog I mentioned I would follow up with example of not only why the financial press is virtually always wrong, but why they have to be wrong. Again, in this vitriolic time I feel compelled to remind you that this is not a political commentary of any kind. Any comments made here [...]