The threat of a recession is on the minds of investors. Some traditional measures of the yield curve are inverted and, in the past, those have preceded recessions. The link between an inverted yield curve and a recession has so dominated recent financial news that for some investors it's no longer a matter of whether [...]
Our media loves a "good" story, even if they have to invent one. Today’s story from Media Groupthink Central (MGC) is the yield curve for US Treasuries has inverted and therefore is signaling an impending recession. Several carefully worded stories to this effect have been printed recently, along with others written more sloppily so as [...]
The Fed is flailing. For the past several years, under the leadership of both Jerome Powell and, before that, Janet Yellen, the Fed claimed it was "data dependent." But the decision last week to reduce short-term rates by 25 basis points tore that narrative to shreds. At the prior Federal Reserve meeting in mid-June, a [...]
A cottage industry has sprung up in the past decade with the sole focus of discrediting any good news on the economy. When President Obama was in office, the attacks mostly came from the right. With President Trump in Office, the attacks mostly come from the left. Since March 2009, regardless of who was in [...]
This Friday, the government will release its initial estimate of real GDP growth in the second quarter, and the headline is likely to look soft. At present, we're projecting an initial report of growth at a 1.8% annual rate. If our projection holds true, we're sure pessimistic analysts and investors will latch onto the slowdown [...]
As of today, the current economic expansion is the longest in US history. Ten years and a day. But just because it's the longest doesn't mean it's the best. The expansions of the 1960s, 1980s, and 1990s, all beat it out both in terms of the pace of growth as well as the total growth [...]
