It's that time of the year again. Holiday sales data show surging online sales while foot traffic at brick and mortar stores remains tepid. If you have a sense of déjà vu, it's because you heard the same stories last year. Black Friday had a 23.6% increase in online sales this year, according to Adobe [...]
Fed Chair Jerome Powell and others have started a new narrative about economic "headwinds." They think past rate hikes, slower foreign growth, and "fading fiscal stimulus" should slow the Fed's rate hikes. But is fiscal stimulus really fading? Powell and others think the growth benefits of both the 2018 tax cuts and increased federal spending [...]
Growth is determined by a perpetual tug-of-war between entrepreneurship and government redistribution. When President Obama was in office, we believed incredible technological innovation would allow for economic growth in spite of Obamacare, greater redistribution, higher taxes and increased regulatory burdens. We thought it would be a Plow Horse Economy, and that things would get better [...]
October Market Scaries As most of you know, we’ve advocated for many years that you not pay attention to the daily drivel of the financial media but rather focus on more important things like your family and friends. For the hundreds of you who have experienced the benefit of following that advice, read no further [...]
Conventional wisdom says the stock market rally is over. We wholeheartedly disagree. These doomsayers are focused on three specific things they claim spell the end: 1) the Fed lifting rates, 2) trade wars, and 3) the midterm elections. So let's break down the issues, one by one, and show why fears are overblown. Tune out [...]
Economic growth continued at a robust rate in the third quarter, supporting the case for both a continued bull market in stocks and further rate hikes from the Fed. While we might make minor adjustments when we get Thursday's data on durable goods, international trade, and inventories, right now our model forecasts real GDP expanded [...]
Federal Reserve Board Chairman, Jerome Powell, who has been remarkably quiet as he adjusts to his new role at the Fed, finally roiled markets last week. He made comments on Wednesday, during the Atlantic Festival at a session moderated by Judy Woodruff of the PBS News Hour. Powell said, "The really extremely accommodative low interest [...]
As far as Harvard economist Martin Feldstein is concerned, we're all doomed. Feldstein says that the low interest rates of the last several years have created a stock market bubble rivaling the housing bubble that precipitated the last crisis. As interest rates keep rising, he says, the stock market bubble will eventually burst, sending the [...]
The Federal Reserve meets on Wednesday and there's one thing we know for sure: it's going to raise rates by another 25 basis points, lifting the federal funds rate to a range from 2.00 to 2.25%. Why are we so confident? Two reasons. First, the market in federal funds futures is putting the odds of [...]