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So far R&A has created 160 blog entries.
5 08, 2019

Wesbury’s Outlook – The Flailing Fed

By |2019-08-05T19:08:58-04:00August 5th, 2019|Uncategorized|Comments Off on Wesbury’s Outlook – The Flailing Fed

The Fed is flailing. For the past several years, under the leadership of both Jerome Powell and, before that, Janet Yellen, the Fed claimed it was "data dependent." But the decision last week to reduce short-term rates by 25 basis points tore that narrative to shreds. At the prior Federal Reserve meeting in mid-June, a [...]

30 07, 2019

Wesbury’s Outlook- Solid GDP Report

By |2019-07-30T14:59:11-04:00July 30th, 2019|Outlook, Policy|Comments Off on Wesbury’s Outlook- Solid GDP Report

A cottage industry has sprung up in the past decade with the sole focus of discrediting any good news on the economy. When President Obama was in office, the attacks mostly came from the right. With President Trump in Office, the attacks mostly come from the left. Since March 2009, regardless of who was in [...]

22 07, 2019

Wesbury’s Outlook – Temporary Tepid Growth for Q2

By |2019-07-22T19:13:17-04:00July 22nd, 2019|Financial, GDP, Outlook|Comments Off on Wesbury’s Outlook – Temporary Tepid Growth for Q2

This Friday, the government will release its initial estimate of real GDP growth in the second quarter, and the headline is likely to look soft. At present, we're projecting an initial report of growth at a 1.8% annual rate. If our projection holds true, we're sure pessimistic analysts and investors will latch onto the slowdown [...]

3 07, 2019

Wesbury’s Outlook – The Longest Expansion

By |2019-07-03T12:29:47-04:00July 3rd, 2019|Uncategorized|Comments Off on Wesbury’s Outlook – The Longest Expansion

As of today, the current economic expansion is the longest in US history. Ten years and a day. But just because it's the longest doesn't mean it's the best. The expansions of the 1960s, 1980s, and 1990s, all beat it out both in terms of the pace of growth as well as the total growth [...]

26 06, 2019

Wesbury’s Outlook – This Crazy Rate Cut

By |2019-06-26T11:14:20-04:00June 26th, 2019|Fed Reserve, Financial, Governments, Interest Rates, Outlook, Uncategorized|Comments Off on Wesbury’s Outlook – This Crazy Rate Cut

The narrative that the U.S. economy is in trouble – some say teetering on the edge of recession - has become so powerful and persuasive that few investors give it a second thought. So of course, they believe, the Fed should cut interest rates. We haven't seen anything like it since the Fed was hiking [...]

18 06, 2019

Wesbury’s Outlook – Better Signs

By |2019-06-18T17:44:08-04:00June 18th, 2019|Uncategorized|Comments Off on Wesbury’s Outlook – Better Signs

A few key economic reports have taken a turn for the better, boosting expected real GDP growth in the second quarter and pointing to an upward revision to first quarter growth. Retail sales grew 0.5% in May, very close to consensus expectations, and were revised up substantially for prior months. Pairing this data with other [...]

11 06, 2019

Wesbury’s Outlook-No Need for Rate Cuts

By |2019-06-11T14:49:31-04:00June 11th, 2019|Fed Reserve, Financial, Governments, Interest Rates, Outlook|Comments Off on Wesbury’s Outlook-No Need for Rate Cuts

At the Friday close the market consensus was that the Federal Reserve would cut short-term interest rates by 50 - 75 basis points in 2019, with another 25 basis point cut in 2020. We think this is nuts. The US economy doesn't need rate cuts. At present, we are projecting that real GDP is growing [...]

4 06, 2019

Wesbury’s Outlook – The Plow Horse Returns?

By |2019-06-04T09:23:50-04:00June 4th, 2019|Financial, Governments, Outlook|Comments Off on Wesbury’s Outlook – The Plow Horse Returns?

We haven't been worried about a trade conflict with China, which has a long track record of pirating intellectual property and is a potential military rival in the (not too distant) future. The US has enormous leverage with China, given our trade deficit with the country and the ability of firms to shift supply chains [...]

14 05, 2019

Wesbury’s Outlook – Trade War Hysterics

By |2019-05-14T10:52:55-04:00May 14th, 2019|Trade|Comments Off on Wesbury’s Outlook – Trade War Hysterics

Since hitting new all-time highs two weeks ago, the S&P 500 has fallen about 2.2% as trade negotiations with China hit a snag. Last week, the US announced new tariffs on Chinese imports. This morning, China announced new tariffs on some US goods. Many fear a widening trade war. Don't get us wrong. We want [...]

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