11 12, 2018

Wesbury’s Outlook – The Long-Term Yield Conundrum

By |2018-12-11T12:20:14-05:00December 11th, 2018|Fed Reserve, Financial, GDP, Interest Rates, Policy|Comments Off on Wesbury’s Outlook – The Long-Term Yield Conundrum

Last Friday, the 10-year Treasury Note closed at a yield of 2.85%. That's up from 2.41% at the end of 2017, but down from the peak of 3.24% on November 8th, and well below where fundamentals suggest yields should be. In the last two years, nominal GDP growth – real GDP growth plus inflation – [...]

17 07, 2018

Wesbury’s Outlook- Yield Curve Inversion

By |2018-07-17T06:10:52-04:00July 17th, 2018|Fed Reserve, Interest Rates, Policy|Comments Off on Wesbury’s Outlook- Yield Curve Inversion

The yield spread between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury Note has narrowed to 25 basis points, its smallest spread since 2007. This has many investors worried the narrowing spread will lead to an inversion of the yield curve (when short-term rates exceed long-term rates) – which throughout history has often occurred prior to a recession. [...]

Go to Top