On March 9, 2018, the bull market in U.S. stocks will celebrate its ninth anniversary. And, what we find most amazing is how few people truly understand it. To this day, in spite of massive increases in corporate earnings, many still think the market is one big "sugar high" – a bubble built on a [...]
We've called the slow, plodding economic recovery from mid-2009 through early 2017 a Plow Horse. It wasn't a thoroughbred, but it wasn't going to keel over and die either. Growth trudged along at a sluggish – but steady - 2.1% average annual rate. Thanks to improved policy out of Washington, the Plow Horse has picked [...]
The stock market is on a tear. The S&P 500 rose 19.4% in 2017 excluding dividends, and is already up over 4% in 2018. It's not a bubble or a sugar high. Our capitalized profits model, says the broad U.S. stock market, is, and was, undervalued. We never believed the "sugar high" theory that QE [...]
Bonds have been in a "bull market" for the past thirty-seven years. Not every quarter, or every month, but bond yields have fallen consistently since Paul Volcker ended the inflation of the 1970s. And just like any long-term bull market or bubble justifications proliferate. The current 10-year Treasury yield is 2.46%, which equates to a [...]
Posted Under: Monday Morning Outlook The Bible story of the virgin birth is at the center of much of the holiday cheer this time of year. The book of Luke tells us that Mary and Joseph traveled to Bethlehem because Caesar Augustus decreed a census should be taken. Mary gave birth after arriving in Bethlehem [...]
Posted Under: Bullish • GDP • Government • Markets • Monday Morning Outlook • Interest Rates • Spending • Taxes • Stocks Last December we wrote "we finally have more than just hope to believe that this year, 2017, is the year the Plow Horse Economy finally gets a spring in its step." We expected real GDP growth to accelerate from 2.0% in 2016 to "about 2.6%" in 2017. Our optimism [...]