WHY WE PLAN – PODCAST
WHY WE PLAN – BLOG
Don’t Play GDP Politics – Wesbury’s Outlook
These days, pretty much everything is hyper-political, including death rates from disease, wearing masks, opening schools, whether some demonstrations are "mostly peaceful" or "violent," and now GDP. Late last week, plenty of headlines blared that real GDP declined 32.9% in [...]
The Bottom Fell Out – Wesbury’s Outlook
Thursday's initial report on real GDP growth in the second quarter is going to break records, and not in a good way. Right now, it looks like the US economy shrank at a 35% annual rate in Q2. To put [...]
The Economy and The Virus – Wesbury’s Outlook
Not since the 1960s and 70s has the United States experienced social upheaval like it is experiencing today. We have protests (both peaceful and otherwise), and a massively divided political landscape. On top of that, we have a virus that [...]
Not Locking Down – Wesbury’s Outlook
A resurgence of new Coronavirus cases around the country has created uncertainty for investors. Stock markets fell last week, not because of the virus, but because investors fear another round of economy-killing, government-mandated lockdowns. We don't expect that to happen, [...]
The Fed is Committed to Low Rates – Wesbury’s Outlook
The one key takeaway from last week's Fed meeting is that monetary policymakers are set to keep short-term interest rates near zero for as far as the eye can see. Not forever, but at least until 2023. Keep this in [...]
More Green Shoots – Wesbury’s Outlook
A full recovery from the COVID-19/Shutdown Crisis is going to take a long time. We don't anticipate reaching a new peak for real GDP until the end of 2021; we don't anticipate a 4% unemployment rate until 2024. However, there [...]
S&P 3100, Dow 25750 – Wesbury’s Outlook
In December 2018 with the S&P 500 at 2,500, we forecast it would hit 3,100 by the end of 2019 and then pushed our forecast to 3,250 as stocks soared. The S&P 500 rose 28.9% in 2019 and hit that [...]
Light at the End of the Tunnel – Wesbury’s Outlook
When the employment report for April is released this Friday, the economic damage from the deepest of the Coronavirus shutdowns will become clear. We estimate that nonfarm payrolls will be down roughly 22 million versus March, and the unemployment rate [...]
Do the Least Harm – Wesbury’s Outlook
Doctors think differently than economists. They put patients with a potential for brain damage in an artificial coma to stop swelling, and when it stops, they bring them out. This fits with the Hippocratic Oath all doctors take, which states [...]