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No Recession on the Horizon – Wesbury’s Outlook

November 4th, 2019|0 Comments

Since the earliest days of the current economic expansion, there have been naysayers asserting the US was on the brink of another recession. Remember all the fear about another wave of home foreclosures, or a disaster in commercial real estate, [...]

Repo Turmoil – Wesbury’s Outlook

October 1st, 2019|0 Comments

In Ronald Reagan's famous A Time For Choosing speech in 1964, he said "...the more the plans fail, the more the planners plan." We were reminded of this recently after pundits freaked out when the New York Federal Reserve injected [...]

Fear the Spending, Not the Debt – Wesbury’s Outlook

September 24th, 2019|0 Comments

Never underestimate the ability of politicians to mess up a good thing. They're certainly trying in Washington, D.C. Unfortunately, many people are concerned about the wrong thing. Nice even numbers fascinate people, and through the first eleven months of this [...]

We’re All Keynesians Now – Wesbury’s Outlook

September 17th, 2019|0 Comments

"We are all Keynesians now," is a phrase that caught on in the late 1960s and early 1970s, variously attributed to Milton Friedman and President Richard Nixon. Uncle Milty was commenting on the general political/economic environment, not saying he was [...]

Business Uncertainty – Wesbury’s Outlook

August 27th, 2019|0 Comments

Analysts were very quick to pin the blame for weakness in stocks late last week on the trade war with China. We agree that uncertainty regarding the future of US-China trade relations was a drag on equities, but think it [...]

This is Not 2008 – Wesbury’s Outlook

August 20th, 2019|0 Comments

The threat of a recession is on the minds of investors. Some traditional measures of the yield curve are inverted and, in the past, those have preceded recessions. The link between an inverted yield curve and a recession has so [...]

The Inverted Yield Curve and Impending Doom?

August 15th, 2019|0 Comments

Our media loves a "good" story, even if they have to invent one. Today’s story from Media Groupthink Central (MGC) is the yield curve for US Treasuries has inverted and therefore is signaling an impending recession. Several carefully worded stories [...]

Wesbury’s Outlook – The Flailing Fed

August 5th, 2019|0 Comments

The Fed is flailing. For the past several years, under the leadership of both Jerome Powell and, before that, Janet Yellen, the Fed claimed it was "data dependent." But the decision last week to reduce short-term rates by 25 basis [...]

Wesbury’s Outlook- Solid GDP Report

July 30th, 2019|0 Comments

A cottage industry has sprung up in the past decade with the sole focus of discrediting any good news on the economy. When President Obama was in office, the attacks mostly came from the right. With President Trump in Office, [...]