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GDP Soars in Third Quarter – Wesbury’s Outlook
There is nothing normal about the 2020 recession. Massive nationwide shutdowns of "non-essential" businesses caused real GDP to drop at a 31.4% annual rate in the second quarter, the biggest drop since the 1930s. However, as we expected, a V-shaped [...]
Profits Poised for Growth – Wesbury’s Outlook
COVID lockdowns crushed the economy in the first half of 2020, with real GDP down 5.0% at an annual rate in the first quarter and 31.4% at annual rate in the second quarter, the latter of which was the steepest [...]
The Long Slog Recovery-Wesbury’s Outlook
The second quarter of 2020 was the mother of all economic contractions. Real GDP shrank at a 31.7% annual rate, the largest drop for any quarter since the Great Depression. However, based on the economic reports we've seen so far, [...]
S&P 500 3650, Dow 32,500 – Wesbury’s Outlook
If you pay close attention to our stock market forecasts, the title of this piece will look familiar. At the end of 2019 we made the same exact forecast for the end of 2020 — the strangest year in our [...]
Biden’s Tax Hike Agenda – Wesbury’s Outlook
Election Day is eleven weeks from tomorrow. In political time, this is an eternity. However, with the White House, about one-third of the Senate, and the entire House of Representatives on the ballot, this election is significant. Particularly because the [...]
Don’t Play GDP Politics – Wesbury’s Outlook
These days, pretty much everything is hyper-political, including death rates from disease, wearing masks, opening schools, whether some demonstrations are "mostly peaceful" or "violent," and now GDP. Late last week, plenty of headlines blared that real GDP declined 32.9% in [...]
The Bottom Fell Out – Wesbury’s Outlook
Thursday's initial report on real GDP growth in the second quarter is going to break records, and not in a good way. Right now, it looks like the US economy shrank at a 35% annual rate in Q2. To put [...]
The Economy and The Virus – Wesbury’s Outlook
Not since the 1960s and 70s has the United States experienced social upheaval like it is experiencing today. We have protests (both peaceful and otherwise), and a massively divided political landscape. On top of that, we have a virus that [...]
Not Locking Down – Wesbury’s Outlook
A resurgence of new Coronavirus cases around the country has created uncertainty for investors. Stock markets fell last week, not because of the virus, but because investors fear another round of economy-killing, government-mandated lockdowns. We don't expect that to happen, [...]