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Wesbury’s Outlook – The Longest Expansion

July 3rd, 2019|0 Comments

As of today, the current economic expansion is the longest in US history. Ten years and a day. But just because it's the longest doesn't mean it's the best. The expansions of the 1960s, 1980s, and 1990s, all beat it [...]

Wesbury’s Outlook – This Crazy Rate Cut

June 26th, 2019|0 Comments

The narrative that the U.S. economy is in trouble – some say teetering on the edge of recession - has become so powerful and persuasive that few investors give it a second thought. So of course, they believe, the Fed [...]

Wesbury’s Outlook – Better Signs

June 18th, 2019|0 Comments

A few key economic reports have taken a turn for the better, boosting expected real GDP growth in the second quarter and pointing to an upward revision to first quarter growth. Retail sales grew 0.5% in May, very close to [...]

Wesbury’s Outlook-No Need for Rate Cuts

June 11th, 2019|0 Comments

At the Friday close the market consensus was that the Federal Reserve would cut short-term interest rates by 50 - 75 basis points in 2019, with another 25 basis point cut in 2020. We think this is nuts. The US [...]

Wesbury’s Outlook – The Plow Horse Returns?

June 4th, 2019|0 Comments

We haven't been worried about a trade conflict with China, which has a long track record of pirating intellectual property and is a potential military rival in the (not too distant) future. The US has enormous leverage with China, given [...]

Wesbury’s Outlook – Trade War Hysterics

May 14th, 2019|0 Comments

Since hitting new all-time highs two weeks ago, the S&P 500 has fallen about 2.2% as trade negotiations with China hit a snag. Last week, the US announced new tariffs on Chinese imports. This morning, China announced new tariffs on [...]

Wesbury’s Outlook – Goodbye Recession Fears

April 29th, 2019|0 Comments

Less than two months ago, conventional wisdom thought the US economy was in real trouble. The consensus expected real GDP would barely grow, if at all, in the first quarter of 2019. Many were in a tizzy about the "second [...]

Wesbury’s Outlook – Resilient Economy

April 26th, 2019|0 Comments

It wasn't that long ago that some economists and investors were seriously concerned about US growth going negative for the first quarter. Now, based on our calculations, which we discuss below, it looks like real GDP grew at a respectable [...]