WHY WE PLAN – PODCAST
WHY WE PLAN – BLOG
S&P 3650, Dow 32500 – Wesbury’s Outlook
A year ago, we projected the S&P 500 would hit 3100 at the end of 2019. In spite of the swoon in equities in the fourth quarter of last year, we didn't see a recession coming and our model for [...]
Good News is Good News – Wesbury’s Outlook
A year ago, conventional wisdom became convinced that a stock market correction was really the beginning of a "bear market," and a sure sign that recession was on its way. Oops. Conventional wisdom was wrong again. The Pouting Pundits still [...]
No Recession on the Horizon – Wesbury’s Outlook
Since the earliest days of the current economic expansion, there have been naysayers asserting the US was on the brink of another recession. Remember all the fear about another wave of home foreclosures, or a disaster in commercial real estate, [...]
Repo Turmoil – Wesbury’s Outlook
In Ronald Reagan's famous A Time For Choosing speech in 1964, he said "...the more the plans fail, the more the planners plan." We were reminded of this recently after pundits freaked out when the New York Federal Reserve injected [...]
Fear the Spending, Not the Debt – Wesbury’s Outlook
Never underestimate the ability of politicians to mess up a good thing. They're certainly trying in Washington, D.C. Unfortunately, many people are concerned about the wrong thing. Nice even numbers fascinate people, and through the first eleven months of this [...]
We’re All Keynesians Now – Wesbury’s Outlook
"We are all Keynesians now," is a phrase that caught on in the late 1960s and early 1970s, variously attributed to Milton Friedman and President Richard Nixon. Uncle Milty was commenting on the general political/economic environment, not saying he was [...]
Business Uncertainty – Wesbury’s Outlook
Analysts were very quick to pin the blame for weakness in stocks late last week on the trade war with China. We agree that uncertainty regarding the future of US-China trade relations was a drag on equities, but think it [...]
This is Not 2008 – Wesbury’s Outlook
The threat of a recession is on the minds of investors. Some traditional measures of the yield curve are inverted and, in the past, those have preceded recessions. The link between an inverted yield curve and a recession has so [...]
The Inverted Yield Curve and Impending Doom?
Our media loves a "good" story, even if they have to invent one. Today’s story from Media Groupthink Central (MGC) is the yield curve for US Treasuries has inverted and therefore is signaling an impending recession. Several carefully worded stories [...]