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WHY WE PLAN – BLOG
Housing Boom to Continue – Wesbury’s Outlook
Housing prices have soared in the past year. The national Case-Shiller index is up 11.2% in the past twelve months, the largest gain since 2005-06. The FHFA index is up 12.0% in the past twelve months, the largest on record [...]
Jobs Are Booming – Wesbury’s Outlook
When the scientists said "15 days to slow the spread," some of us actually believed that by Easter the shutdowns would end. That was last year. Now, a full year, and $5 trillion in government spending later, we may finally [...]
Inflation and the Fed – Wesbury’s Outlook
We believe inflation is still, and always will be, a monetary phenomenon. It is defined as "too much money chasing too few goods and services" – but that doesn't mean every period of higher inflation is going to look exactly [...]
Happy, Healthy, and Calm
Now that 2020 is receding in the rear view mirror, it’s time to assess where we are and to refresh our goals for where we are headed. 2020 gave us many lessons to learn from and move forward. First, [...]
2021: Robust Growth, Higher Inflation – Wesbury’s Outlook
The COVID-19 Recession is the weirdest we've ever had. There is no way anyone could have forecast it. It did not happen because the Fed was too tight. It did not happen because of a trade war. It was self-inflicted, [...]
S&P 4,200 – Dow 35,000 – Wesbury’s Outlook
In December 2019, we made a year-end 2020 forecast of 3,650 for the S&P 500. With the index closing Friday at 3,638, that looks like a very good call. But we'd be fibbing if we didn't admit to getting whipsawed [...]
Giving Thanks, Double Dip Unlikely – Wesbury’s Outlook
Give Thanks! The US economy continues to heal. Payrolls keep growing, unemployment claims - though still elevated - are shrinking, key measures of the manufacturing and service sectors remain well into positive territory, and, as this week should show, both [...]
No Wave is Good News For Stocks- Wesbury’s Outlook
While the election is still not certified, and court battles will drag on, it appears that we can draw two firm conclusions from the 2020 election. First, the pollsters were horribly wrong again. Secondly, American voters do not want a [...]
GDP Soars in Third Quarter – Wesbury’s Outlook
There is nothing normal about the 2020 recession. Massive nationwide shutdowns of "non-essential" businesses caused real GDP to drop at a 31.4% annual rate in the second quarter, the biggest drop since the 1930s. However, as we expected, a V-shaped [...]