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17 07, 2018

Wesbury’s Outlook- Yield Curve Inversion

By |2018-07-17T06:10:52+00:00July 17th, 2018|Fed Reserve, Interest Rates, Policy|0 Comments

The yield spread between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury Note has narrowed to 25 basis points, its smallest spread since 2007. This has many investors worried the narrowing spread will lead to an inversion of the yield curve (when short-term rates exceed long-term rates) – which throughout history has often occurred prior to a recession. [...]

3 07, 2018

Wesbury’s Outlook – Election Outlook

By |2018-07-03T08:51:08+00:00July 3rd, 2018|Financial, Governments, Policy, Spending, Taxes|0 Comments

At least three reasons suggest the Democrats should be optimistic about taking control of the House this November. First, the party controlling the White House typically loses seats in mid-terms. These include "tidal waves" against the president's party like in 1994 and 2010, when newly-elected presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama watched their parties lose [...]

26 06, 2018

Wesbury’s Outlook – No More Kid Gloves

By |2018-06-26T11:36:56+00:00June 26th, 2018|Uncategorized|0 Comments

What do the internet and China have in common? For better or for worse, policymakers are no longer treating them with kid gloves. This past week, the Supreme Court reversed a decision made before the dawn of the internet that prevented states from taxing sales to their residents unless the business had a "physical presence" [...]

20 06, 2018

Wesbury’s Outlook- Bonds Misjudge the Future

By |2018-06-20T09:19:32+00:00June 20th, 2018|Financial, Interest Rates|0 Comments

We've always been skeptical that bond yields carry deep meaning about the future. Low Treasury bond yields in recent years were said to be a signal of slower growth, or possibly a recession, ahead. And the bond world said stocks were over-valued. Clearly, the forecasted recession never came. Not only is the economy accelerating, but [...]

5 06, 2018

Wesbury’s Outlook – Jobs, Jobs, Jobs

By |2018-06-05T10:28:31+00:00June 5th, 2018|Uncategorized|0 Comments

In over thirty years of watching the economy we've seen recessions, recoveries (both slow and fast), panics, lulls, and boomlets. But we've rarely seen a job market this strong. Everything is hyper-politicized these days, and we get accused of playing politics all the time. But what we care about deeply, what drives our focus, is [...]

30 05, 2018

Wesbury’s Outlook – Higher Rates Won’t Cause Debt Spiral

By |2018-05-30T09:41:53+00:00May 30th, 2018|Debt, Financial, Interest Rates, Policy|0 Comments

For decades, investors have feared the national debt growing to unsustainable levels and destroying the US economy. Back in 1981, the public debt of the federal government was $1 trillion; today it's more than $21 trillion. At some point, their theory goes, additional debt is going to be the fiscal straw that breaks the camel's [...]

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